Big 12 Predictions: Texas vs. Oklahoma State College Football Picks

Jay Pryce

Wednesday, September 28, 2016 1:30 PM UTC

Wednesday, Sep. 28, 2016 1:30 PM UTC

The road team has dominated the Texas-Oklahoma State series over the last decade, but we predict the Cowboys come out firing in this one. Check out our betting preview with a free prediction on how to bet this game. 

Texas Longhorns (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS)
Texas is sporting an eight-game winning streak at Boone Pickens Stadium but enters this matchup the underdog for the first time during the run. Big 12 away trips have not been kind to the Longhorns in recent years when expected to lose in the betting market.They are 1-4 SU and ATS in their last six conference games as road dogs, averaging just 12.4 points per game. Texas has failed to reach its projected team total by an average of 13 points per game in this stretch. The UNDER is 4-1 also.

Will head coach Charlie Strong's offense fire this time around? It sure looks like it. The team averages 44.7 points per game, 11th most nationally. Expect a lot of the run. Strong rushes it on 61.1 percent of plays; its 52.3 carries per game are seventh most in the country.

The defensive front is solid. It has a top-tier pass rush, sacking the quarterback on 10.8 percent of dropbacks (14th), and holds opponents to 3.6 rushing yards per game. The unit has been its own worst enemy in many games, though. Overall, the Longhorns average 9.3 penalties for 89.7 yards per contest.  They were called for 16 in this matchup last season.


Oklahoma State Cowboys (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS)
Oklahoma State is 25-3 SU and 17-9-2 ATS as home chalk against Big 12 opponents under head coach Mike Gundy. Two of the overall defeats, however, occurred in the only five games spotting 4 points or fewer to visitors. The road team has dominated in this series under Gundy’s tenure, going 9-2 SU and 8-3 ATS.

Offensively, the Cowboys feed off quarterback Mason Rudolph. The junior ranks 11th in the FBS in passing yards (1,296), but has struggled to stay off the turf. He’s been sacked 13 times, tied for fifth-most in the country. This could spell trouble against the aggressive Texas defense.

Oklahoma State counters the Longhorns’ rushing game with a stout front seven of its own. The defense allows 4.1 yards per carry. The secondary is a major concern, allowing 9.8 yards per pass attempt. Including its 35-24 loss to Baylor on Saturday, the unit allows 34.8 points to Big 12 opponents since the start of last season. 


Final Analysis
Gundy’s defensive backfield always seems to be his team’s weak link, but Texas’ offense often struggles to take advantage. The Longhorns have shown it can hang in the passing game this season under freshman quarterback Shane Buechele with big performances versus Cal and Notre Dame. His first Big 12 road start might be too much pressure, however. Oklahoma State -2.5 is the NCAAF Pick.

Remember to drop by SBR's list of the best-ranked bonuses, and find out which of the top sportsbooks is offering the top rated sportsbooks.


SBR record YTD: 123-88-6 (avg. odds -104); 2016-17 NCAAF: 12-16 (avg. odds -109)

Free College Football Pick: Oklahoma St -2.5
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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