Since the Big 12 adopted its current format for its conference championship game in 2017, it has been primarily dominated by Oklahoma. The Sooners won every Big 12 Championship from 2017-2021, but their run ended last year when Baylor beat Oklahoma State.
The Big 12 Conference does not use a two-division format, although the ACC will follow suit in 2023. Thus, to correctly identify the eventual winner of the Big 12 Championship Game, one must start with analysis of who can finish the regular season in either first or second place.
Here are our picks and predictions to win the Big 12 Conference title in 2022 based on the odds from our top-rated sportsbooks.
Big 12 Championship Title Odds
Big 12 Championship Title Picks
- Oklahoma State to win Big 12 Championship (+700 via BetMGM)
- Oklahoma Over 9.5 regular-season wins (+100 via DraftKings)
- Baylor Over 7.5 regular-season wins (-150 via DraftKings)
- Texas Under 6.5 conference wins (-170 via DraftKings)
Big 12 Championship Preview
Oklahoma State to win Big 12 Championship (+700)
Oklahoma State has mostly been recognized as a high-powered offensive team that plays shootouts under head coach Mike Gundy. But the Cowboys made a Big 12 Championship game appearance and finished No. 7 in the final AP Poll on the strength of a rock-solid defense.
The Cowboys ranked third in the country in total defense (273.6 yards per game allowed) and seventh in scoring defense (16.8 ppg). Though the Cowboys lost four starters in the secondary, they have an advantage over the top-two conference favorites (Oklahoma and Texas) since they return great production at the quarterback position. In the 11 games not played against Baylor last year, Spencer Sanders threw 19 touchdowns and just five interceptions. His ability to take the offense another step forward will be vital in allowing the defense time to build cohesion.
Oklahoma Over 9.5 regular-season wins (+100)
Oklahoma has won at least 11 games (including conference championships and bowl games) in six of the last seven seasons. For the Under 9.5 regular-season wins wager to cash, the Sooners would have to go 9-3 or worse. However, with as much turnover as Oklahoma experienced after head coach Lincoln Riley left for USC, the Sooners should be in good hands with new head coach Brent Venables, arguably the country's best defensive coordinator this past decade.
Transfer quarterback Dillon Gabriel was successful in three seasons at UCF (threw for 8,000+ yards and 70 touchdowns) and should lead another explosive Sooners offense. From a scheduling standpoint, Oklahoma benefits from getting three of its most challenging games (Kansas State, Baylor, and Oklahoma State) at home. Even if they slip up in one of those and their neutral-site game against Texas, they should be a 10-2 team at minimum.
Baylor Over 7.5 regular-season wins (-150)
An Over/Under of 7.5 wins for defending Big 12 champion Baylor seems disrespectful. Baylor returns 13 starters (seven on offense, six on defense), and a defense that ranked second in the conference in scoring (19.2 ppg) and rushing defense (116.8 ypg) should again be stout. In addition, the Bears should have one of the best offensive lines in the country, as four seniors return from a unit that paved the way for its top two rushers to combine for 2,400 yards and 14 touchdowns last year.
If Baylor can win at BYU in its second game, the Bears should head into conference play at 3-0, assuming they defeat Albany and Texas State at home.
Texas Under 6.5 conference wins (-170)
Texas was one of the most disappointing teams in the country last season in head coach Steve Sarkisian's first year at the helm. The Longhorns finished 5-7 and won just three conference games, with the most embarrassing result coming in a home loss to Kansas.
Texas could be loaded on offense with five-star prospect Quinn Ewers at quarterback and one of the best running backs in the country in Bijan Robinson. But it did not make enough improvements on defense to overcome last year's issues when it allowed the third-most yards per game in the conference and 35 ppg in conference play, a big reason it lost an FBS-high four games when leading at halftime.
2021 Big 12 Conference Standings
- Oklahoma State Cowboys (12-2, 8-1)
- Baylor Bears (12-2, 7-2) +5000 odds to win last year's Big 12 Championship
- Oklahoma Sooners (11-2, 7-2)
- Iowa State Cyclones (7-6, 5-4)
- Kansas State Wildcats (8-5, 4-5)
- West Virginia Mountaineers (6-7, 4-5)
- Texas Longhorns (5-7, 3-6)
- TCU Horned Frogs (5-7, 3-6)
- Texas Tech Red Raiders (7-6, 3-6)
- Kansas Jayhawks (2-10, 1-8)
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Big 12 championship odds and picks made 7/4/2022 at 9:20 a.m. ET.