Betting Trend Makes Under the Pick in San Diego St. vs. Fresno St.

Jeff Grant

Monday, September 29, 2014 7:48 PM GMT

The Fresno State Bulldogs and San Diego State Aztecs have both enjoyed success in Mountain West Conference play in recent years, which could lead to conservative game plans offensively with inexperienced signal-callers Friday.

A Subdued Victory
San Diego State snapped a two-game losing streak by picking up a 34-17 victory over the UNLV Rebels as 18-point home favorites last Saturday, while going UNDER the betting total for the fourth consecutive time to start the 2014 campaign.

The Aztecs will play this game without the services of quarterback Quinn Kaehler, which is important to consider when making your Week 6 NCAA football picks, as he suffered a sprained to his throwing shoulder last time out.

Kaehler has compiled a 10-5 SU record as a starter, but the program will likely turn to Nick Bawden, who would become the first true freshman in school history to start a game without never throwing a pass at the collegiate level.

 

Building Momentum
Fresno State has won two games in a row after starting the season with an 0-3 SUATS record, as it comes off a solid 35-24 victory over New Mexico as six-point road favorites on the College Football odds.

The Bulldogs are led offensively by quarterback Brian Burrell, who eclipsed the 300-yard passing mark for the first time in his career last Saturday, as he continues to try and make people forget about former starter Derek Carr.

College football handicappers will find that the program has scored 91 points and rolled up more than 1,200 yards of total offense in the last two contests, while it has gone 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS in Weeks 5 through 9 the last two-plus seasons.

 

Key Factors
The Aztecs will try to confuse Burrell with their 3-3-5 defensive scheme in just his sixth career start, especially since Rocky Long’s group held the Bulldogs to just 341 total yards of offense in last year’s 35-28 overtime loss as 6.5-point home underdogs.

San Diego State has won 14 of its last 16 Mountain West games, while it enters this affair with an even turnover differential after being minus-11 in that all-important category during last year’s 8-5 SU campaign.

 

Stopping the Run
The Bulldogs will certainly want to make the Aztecs one dimensional with a inexperienced player under center, but they’ve allowed opponents to rush for an average of 231.4 yards per game this season.

Fresno State was out-gained by a 170-43 margin on the ground in last year’s meeting, which could cause problems for this team once again due to San Diego State’s Donnel Pumphrey coming off a 167-yard performance.

Take a Look at the Inflated Odds for Week 6 College Football Betting!

Prediction
I’m going to recommend that readers play the total as one of their free picks, as the UNDER is 27-12 in the Aztecs’ last 39 games after rushing for 200 or more yards in their previous contest.

It’s also important to point out that Fresno State has fallen short of the betting total in six of its last eight conference games—a trend that I expect to continue with both coaching staffs being conservative offensively with inexperienced players under center.

College Football Pick: Under at 5Dimes

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":294025, "sportsbooksIds":[19,43,227,1096,999996,93,238,123,139], "LineTypeId":5, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]