Betting Data Signals Four Teams to Fade With Your Week 12 College Football Picks

Doug Upstone

Friday, November 20, 2015 9:08 PM GMT

Beating the sportsbooks betting odds requires a variety of weapons. Among them are football handicappers who use systems that are designed to break down particular situations no matter the sport.

These systems do not always win and certainly has detractors among those placing college football picks, but the fact remains if a system is 24-4 and loses, it is still 24-5 which give you a more favorable position than not. As stated, this should be part of arsenal for making sports picks, not just one element to achieve the kind of success that brings in the cash.

Here are some of my top systems for this week and are we really this far into the season? Seems like we just talking about how North Carolina should have beaten South Carolina on opening night.

 

Texas A&M vs. Vanderbilt
Play On home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after two consecutive games where they forced three or more turnovers, against opponent after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse.

The Commodores have been an elite defense all season, ranked 10th in points allowed at 17.4 per contest. The Vanderbilt defense has forced at least two turnovers in six of last seven outings and goes against a turnover-prone Texas A&M offense, who has coughed it up at least three times in four of past five trips to the gridiron. Particular home underdogs have thrived in this situation at 26-6 ATS the last 23 years and continued to create miscues and won by 1.7 points a game for sports picks at Bovada.

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N.C. State and Mid. Tennessee State
Play On conference home favorites after seven or more contests, who have outgained opponents by 50-100 yards a game, against a team being outgained by 100 or more yards a game.

We have two teams that fit this precise system. What we have here is conference clubs who have shown they deserve to have the college football odds in their favor at this point of the season by their offensive and defensive numbers, playing against a far less skilled opponent, who has consistently not performed well. Wagerweb.ag has the Wolfpack at -17 over Syracuse and the Blue Raiders a -24 point choice over North Texas and these favorites are 26-6 ATS the last 10 seasons, winning by 31.7 PPG.

 

San Diego State vs. UNLV
Play Against home teams (UNLV) after allowing 37 points or more in last game, against opponent after three straight wins by 21 or more points.

The Rebels put up 35 points at Colorado State but surrendered 49 and is facing what sure looks to be the best squad in the Mountain West Conference in San Diego State. The Aztecs were only 1-3 and 0-4 ATS to start the season, but once conference play began, they got on a roll and are 6-0 SU and ATS, winning by 24 PPG. With the nation's No.6 total defense and punishing ground attack that ranks 21st in the country at 222.2 YPG, the college football odds would seem in their favor. Teams like San Diego State are 24-5 ATS the last decade.

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Navy vs. Tulsa
Play On excellent rushing team averaging 4.8 or more yards a carry, against rushing defense allowing the same (4.8 or more YPC), after outrushing last two opponent by 150 or more yards, seven or more contests in the season.

Navy is second in the country in rushing yards at 335 per game. Their relentless triple option attack just wears opposing teams out unless they are able to generate penetration to disrupt the rhythm of the offense. Tulsa concedes 221 yard per game on the ground at 4.9 YPC and has none of the attributes necessary to slow the Midshipmen down, as the numbers suggest this deep into the season. Navy is a 12-point road favorite and teams like them that fit this system are 31-7 ATS since 1992, victorious by 29 PPG.

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