Betting Data Signals Four Teams to Fade With Your Week 10 College Football Picks

Doug Upstone

Friday, November 6, 2015 8:48 PM GMT

Friday, Nov. 6, 2015 8:48 PM GMT

You have spent the week looking over data to get an edge over the sportsbooks' college football odds for this Saturday. As the games approach, here is one other aspect to consider.

Having systems to use is important for my college football picks because they relate to specific circumstances that have been profitable in the past. I'm not talking about data-mining entries that have six factors that come up once every three years, instead, simple to follow methods that sometimes are hard to swallow on big underdogs (more on that later), yet prove over time to be quite useful for building wagering accounts at sportsbooks like WagerWeb.

If your preference is to play underdogs for sports picks, here are some unique systems that at worst place you a good situation against the college football odds.

 

Iowa State +25 at Oklahoma
Play On Road underdogs with ordinary offense averaging 4.8 to 5.6 yards per play, against a team with a good defense (4.2 to 4.8 YPP), after allowing 225 or less total yards in their previous game.

 

Iowa State was a dwindling home underdog last week against Texas and showed why they should be in 24-0 upset of Texas at Ames. The Cyclones defense completely bottled up the Longhorns, holding them to 216 total yards. While Oklahoma is in the Top 10 in yards per play both offensively and defensively and should run away from the Cyclones, teams like Iowa State end up building a lot of confidence from defensive efforts like they just had.

After a slow start, the Cyclones have found a running game in freshman Mike Warren who has almost 1,000 and several teams have enjoyed success running on the Sooners. With Baylor, TCU and Oklahoma State on tap, will Bob Stoops team be fully focused? Since 1998, the Sooners are 9-0 but just 4-5 ATS in Norman versus Iowa State and this system has the underdog a super 29-4 ATS in this precise situation. Cyclones might be worth another look.

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Old Dominion +10 at Texas-San Antonio
Play Against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points like UTSA, off an upset loss as a road favorite of seven or more in weeks 10 through 13.

As a football handicapper, I understand I am asking a lot of you to even place a team on your radar that is 0-8 ATS this season like Old Dominion. Don't scoff at this notion just yet because UTSA is only 1-7 SU and while they are 4-4 ATS, the Roadrunners are 1-1 ATS as favorites, including brutal home loss to bad North Texas squad last week, 30-23 as touchdown favorites.

Statistically, these two C-USA clubs are very similar, both just over 20 points a game on offense at around 350 yards per game. On defense, both the Monarchs and UTSA allow about 35 PPG and each is very close to 430 yards surrendered. The Roadrunners do deserve bonus points for playing harder schedule and that is factored in oddsmakers line, because coach Larry Coker's squad is only awarded two points for playing at the Alamodome.

In the last 22 years, clubs like UTSA are just 6-29 ATS when involved with these factors, winning by only 1.9 points a contest.

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Oregon State +17.5 hosting UCLA
Play On underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points after scoring 17 points or less in two straight games, against opponent who was involved in two contests where 60 total points or more were scored.

Oregon State might be the worst team in the Pac-12 , but UCLA is devastated with injuries on both sides of the ball, particularly on defense. The Bruins are not known as a high-focused team healthy or not as we saw against Colorado last week in 35-31 come from behind win. No question the Beavers have offensive limitations in scoring only 19.4 PPG, but history tells us clubs like Oregon State step up here and the Bruins have Washington State, Utah and USC still on the docket, which could suggest another dull effort.

Since 2010, teams like these eager Beavers are 16-2 ATS, losing by 8.2 PPG.

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