#Betting101: Dealing with Big Chalk can be Tricky

Jason Lake

Wednesday, September 6, 2017 8:42 PM UTC

Wednesday, Sep. 6, 2017 8:42 PM UTC

It’s time to take another look at Saturday’s NCAAF odds board and see if we can find another tasty pick or two. The Kansas State Wildcats might have something for us.

It’s still summertime here at the ranch, but really, it’s football season. This is the sport that makes the gambling world go ‘round, and we’re already knee-deep in NCAAF goodness. Let’s take a quick look at the two picks we’ve already made for Week 2:

Houston –1
Ohio +5

There’s been a fair amount of movement for Saturday’s game between the Cougars and the Arizona Wildcats; Houston was up to –2.5 at one point, but now they’re back down to –1 at most books after a flurry of activity Tuesday morning. As for the Bobcats, they play the Purdue Boilermakers Thursday night, and the college football lines for that game have started trickling back toward Ohio. Still plenty of value in both picks as we go to press. So what else can we dig up for Week 2?

A Saucerful of Chalk
Here’s another interesting trend that Marc Lawrence brought up at last month’s International Football Betting Conference: Kansas State Wildcats head coach Bill Snyder is 88-46 ATS at home. Make that 89-46 ATS after last week’s 55-19 thumping of the Central Arkansas Bears (+24.5), representing the Southland Conference in the FCS. That’s a damn good home record. Then again, the stadium does have Snyder’s name on it.

The No. 19 Wildcats are at home again this Saturday (noon ET) to play the Charlotte 49ers, and as we go to press, Snyder’s troops are 36-point favorites, holding steady since the open despite our consensus reports showing 67-percent support for K-State. We’re guessing it’s a case of low volume. The game’s not on TV, Charlotte represents Conference USA (yawn), and the ‘Cats aren’t that big a deal on the national stage, either. Suits us fine; the less people know, the more betting value we can squeeze out of these games.

Dealing with big chalk can be tricky, but we’ve got the football nerds on our side. The FPI numbers at ESPN project Kansas State to win Saturday’s matchup 98.2 percent of the time, which translates to –5464 using the SBR Betting Odds Calculator. Believe it or not, there is a moneyline for this bad boy: K-State –36000. Dude, where’s my value? Not with the ‘Cats at these prices. It’s sad to leave such a promising NCAAF pick behind, but hey, the Houston Cougars and Ohio Bobcats are still there for your consideration. Life goes on. That’s #Betting101.

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