#Betting101: (Washington) Husky Value on Futures Market

washington huskies

Jason Lake

Tuesday, October 10, 2017 1:06 PM GMT

Tuesday, Oct. 10, 2017 1:06 PM GMT

Fresh projections are out for who will win college football’s National Championship this year. Alabama is favored, of course, but are the Tide the right pick at these NCAAF odds?

God bless our friendly friends at FiveThirtyEight. This intrepid source of free sports-nerd analysis has released its projections for who will win college football’s National Championship. The Top 35 candidates are listed, along with their chances of winning their conference and of making it into the College Football Playoff. We can use these projections to find some bargains for our NCAAF picks. All we need to do is run the percentages through our SBR Odds Converter and compare them to what’s on the futures market.

For example, let’s look at the top team on their list, the No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide. At press time, FiveThirtyEight projects the undefeated Tide (6-0 SU, 3-3 ATS) as a 26 percent shot to regain the National Championship. The college football odds at Bovada have ‘Bama listed as a +120 favorite as we go to press; that works out to an implied percentage of 45.45 percent to win the title. Not a lot of value in Tuscaloosa this year. So where should we focus our attention instead?

Husky Mudkipz

As often happens when you’re betting on NCAAF futures, you have to work your way down to the second tier of contenders, and in this case, the Washington Huskies (6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS). They’re available at +1800, but FiveThirtyEight projects the Huskies to win the title 10 percent of the time, which converts to +900 for a fair price – no hold percentages involved.

Washington lies in that sweet betting spot between plausible title contender and overlooked “small-market” program. Chris Petersen has built a strong program in Seattle; in just his third season at the helm, the Huskies made last year’s College Football Playoff, where they came up short to Alabama in the semifinals. FiveThirtyEight gives our heroes a 43 percent chance of making it back in. If there’s a rematch, Washington should be in a better position to win.

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.@FiveThirtyEight predicts the Huskies to make a return trip to the Playoff in their first projections of the season https://t.co/J3JiiuDoHy pic.twitter.com/1cJCWVmOJv

— Seattle Times Sports (@SeaTimesSports) October 5, 2017

The Georgia Bulldogs (6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS) also have some value at +1800. FiveThirtyEight projects Georgia to win the title 7 percent of the time, or +1329 for an equivalent college football futures price. But we’ll go with the Huskies and the larger profit margin – at least according to these odds and stats.

Free NCAAF Pick: Washington +1800Best Line Offered: Bovada 
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