#Betting101: UTEP Exposed on Early Week 10 NCAAF Lines

utep football

Jason Lake

Monday, October 30, 2017 1:05 PM GMT

Monday, Oct. 30, 2017 1:05 PM GMT

The UTEP Miners might be the worst team in the FBS – especially on the road, which means it could be time to put the MTSU Blue Raiders in our college football picks.

It’s a pleasant Sunday afternoon here at the ranch. We’ve got the NFL games on the big screen, but more importantly we’ve got the earliest Week 10 college football odds right here in front of us. You simply have to jump on these lines as soon as they open, if you’re at all serious about making money at this. And look what we have here: The UTEP Miners have opened as 17-point road dogs for Saturday’s game (7:30 p.m. ET) against the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders.

Why should we care about a Conference USA game that isn’t even on television? Because nobody else does. And because the Miners were 10-16 ATS in away games under head coach Sean Kugler, before Kugler tendered his resignation on Oct. 2. Former head coach Mike Price is running the show on an interim basis, but UTEP (0-8 SU, 2-6 ATS) has already honked two games for Price, including his debut at Southern Mississippi. Let’s see if Saturday’s game is leaning far enough towards the same result.
 

Murfree’s Law

Well, this is awkward. Apparently some books opened earlier with the Miners at +17.5, and our first consensus reports show 100 percent support for UTEP at those odds. That could literally be one person out of one, so let’s not read too much into it, but the line move is a bit scary.

The math supports taking a stab at the Blue Raiders (3-5 SU and ATS). ESPN’s Football Power Index has Middle Tennessee winning this game 90.1 percent of the time, and check this out: Wizard of Odds has college football betting stats to help us with our NCAAF picks. Why was I not informed about this? According to the Wiz, 90.1 percent works out to around –19, going by estimated probability. Nice.
 


Also nice: MTSU’s performance at Floyd Stadium. ESPN’s Brad Edwards and Seth Walder crunched the numbers this offseason and ranked the Raiders No. 22 in the FBS at 1.18 Points Above Expectation playing at home. However, we’re not that impressed with how well Middle Tennessee has played without starting QB Brent Stockstill (shoulder). The UNDER is 7-0-1 for the Raiders this year and 5-3 for UTEP, including 4-1 in their past five games, as the Miners deal with all sorts of injuries on their own offense. Rain is in the long-range forecast for Murfreesboro. We don’t have any totals as of this writing for Week 10, but if you see a reasonable number up there – maybe anything below 49 – consider hopping on the UNDER train for a small wager.

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