#Betting101: Trust the Process

Jason Lake

Monday, September 4, 2017 10:13 PM UTC

Monday, Sep. 4, 2017 10:13 PM UTC

The Florida Gators came up short for our Week 1 college football picks. Let’s take a look at their loss to the Michigan Wolverines and see if we could have done better.

The operation was a success, but the patient died on the table. We lovingly hand-picked the Florida Gators (+6) to cover Saturday’s game against the Michigan Wolverines, and it looked good for a while, but the Gators had a second-half meltdown and lost 33-17. Guess we’ll just have to close down the ranch and look for a job in retail or something.

Heck no. Whether you’re making college football picks as a pro or a dedicated hobbyist, you have to get used to watching your beloved picks die on the vine. Even the sharpest sharps will get it wrong almost half the time; in the long run, anything over 52.4 percent is profitable at –110 juice, while anything over 55 percent or so is Nostradamus-level – and probably unsustainable. Today, we’re going to do a quick autopsy on our pick, then jump on the early Week 2 lines and see if we can scoop up a bargain or two.

Gator Bait
The game itself was going according to plan. Florida led 17-13 at the half, as Michigan’s young recruits were slow out of the gate. But everything went to hell in the second half; the Gators fumbled a kick-off return, and fumbled again, and then one more time in their own end zone for good measure. Great googly-moogly.

The Florida Gators are the only major conference team not to reach 200 yards of offense yesterday.

— Tomahawk Nation (@Tomahawknation) September 3, 2017

That’s the way the prolate spheroid bounces. Having said that, we could have skipped this matchup altogether when Florida added three more names to their suspended list for Saturday’s game. Then again, we were able to exploit that news and grab the Gators at +6, instead of their “official” close at +4.5. We’ll call that a moral victory and move on.
Cougar Alert
The first step in our plan for Week 2 is to pounce on the NCAAF odds while they’re still soft. This is what the sharps do. We’ll start by targeting one of the head coaches that Marc Lawrence talked about during the inaugural International Football Betting Conference; here’s the video in case you weren’t in Costa Rica last month:

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For this pick, we’re going to consider fading Rich Rodriguez and the Arizona Wildcats. Rich-Rod is 10-19 ATS (34.9 percent) as an underdog, and the ‘Cats have opened as 1.5-point home dogs for Saturday’s game (10:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU) versus the Houston Cougars. Houston was No. 41 on the preseason FEI charts at Football Outsiders. Arizona was No. 69. That’s a good a sign as any to pound those Cougs at the best price on the board.

Free Pick: Houston –1 (action has moved line slightly)
Best Line: BetOnline

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