#Betting101: Revisiting NCAAF Conference Futures

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Jason Lake

Monday, September 18, 2017 4:12 PM GMT

Monday, Sep. 18, 2017 4:12 PM GMT

Now that the non-conference college football schedule has wrapped up, we need to go back to the conference futures market and look for soft spots in the NCAAF odds.

How long does it take before you know whether your football team is any good? They say it only takes two NFL games before the projections start to solidify; college football has three games under its belt – mostly non-conference games, granted, but let’s take this opportunity to compare the latest projections at Team Rankings with the latest NCAAF odds for the “Power 5” conferences. We might even find a bargain or two along the way.

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How Long Does It take You To Decide Whether or Not a #CollegeFootball Team is Any Good? @SBRSportsPicks

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Big Ten
The Big Ten has outperformed the rest of the FBS through three games, according to the Simple Rating System (SRS) numbers at Sports Reference. Despite losing at home to Oklahoma, the East Division’s Ohio State Buckeyes are still 37.1 percent to win the conference at Team Rankings, while the Wisconsin Badgers are 30.9 percent coming out of the West Division. Not surprisingly, the Badgers (+550) are the value pick of the two at bet365.
 

Southeastern
The SEC will probably reclaim its college football throne at some point. But there’s nobody in the East Division to credibly challenge the Alabama Crimson Tide. They’re 46.0 percent to win the conference and still way too chalky at –150 over at Bovada. Perhaps the Mississippi State Bulldogs (19.9 percent) can do something about it at a very tasty +7500.
 

Pacific-12
The Pac-12 looks like it will boil down to the USC Trojans (35.5 percent) in the South Division and the Washington Huskies (32.3 percent) in the North. One guess where the value is: Yup, the Huskies are available at +300 at bet365, while the Trojans are +110.
 


Big 12
Oklahoma opened at +110 to win the Big 12, and dumping Ohio State at the Horseshoe barely even moved the needle, leaving the Sooners at –110 as we go to press. But they’re not a good NCAAF pick at that price, according to their 45.8-percent projection. The Oklahoma State Cowboys (34.8 percent), on the other hand, appear viable as a +350 second-favorite at BetOnline.
 

Atlantic Coast
The ACC has been reduced to a one-horse race, and that horse is the defending National Champions. The Clemson Tigers are 55.8 percent to win the conference, which might be underselling their chances after the Florida State Seminoles (14.3 percent) saw starting quarterback Deondre Francois go down with a torn knee in their season-opening loss to Alabama. The odds at press time still have Clemson listed at +400 and FSU at +100; these may not be current by the time you read this, but if they are, bet accordingly, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.

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