#Betting101: Pounding the Week 1 NCAAF Lines

Football Fans Betting 101

Jason Lake

Wednesday, August 30, 2017 1:50 PM GMT

Wednesday, Aug. 30, 2017 1:50 PM GMT

Now that we’ve got a better understanding of what makes a sharp bettor, let’s apply that process to our Week 1 NCAAF picks and see where the betting value lies.

Wait a second – didn’t they already play Week 1? Sort of; the 2017 FBS college football season kicked off Saturday, but only 10 teams played. For everyone else, this is Week 1, starting Thursday and continuing on through Monday. There are 130 teams in the FBS this year. Don’t worry: There’s plenty of football coming your way.

So what are we going to do about it? How the heck do we find the best NCAAF odds when there are so many games to choose from? No problem. With a sound fundamental betting strategy and a little research, we can find some lines worth exploiting. Just remember what we said about sharp betting: Your edge is the difference between you and the recreational bettors in the market. When they zig, you zag.
 

State Penn

Let’s start by looking at some projections. We don’t have time to run all 130 teams through the wringer, but here’s a trick: Compare the subjective preseason Top 25 rankings (we’ll go with the Coaches Poll in this case) to the super-nerdy Fremeau Efficiency Index ratings at Football Outsiders. Recreational bettors are much more likely to align themselves with the coaches; sharps know the value of analytics.

Well, you’ve got the usual suspects at the top of both lists... Alabama, Ohio State, Florida State... the first significant difference is with the Penn State Nittany Lions. The coaches have them ranked No. 6, but FEI has Penn State at No. 11. Clearly, there’s a difference of opinion here. The Nittany Lions had a tremendous 2016 campaign at 11-3 (10-3-1 ATS), but they also needed miracle comebacks to beat Minnesota and Ohio State at home. Miracle comebacks are difficult to reproduce.
 


Here’s another one: The beloved Michigan Wolverines (10-3 SU, 6-7 ATS) are No. 9 in the coaches poll and No. 16 on the preseason FEI ratings. Is there something wrong with the Big Ten? Kinda; this was the fourth-best conference in the Power 5 last year, according to the stat gurus at Sports Reference. Yes, worse than the ACC. Jim Harbaugh also has a lot of roster turnover to deal with this year. As they say, “squares” bet teams. Sharps bet numbers.

Both Penn State and Michigan play on Saturday, so we’ve got some time to look at their odds and see if their opponents belong in our college football picks. We’ll give them a closer look tomorrow; in the meantime, what do you think about the Big Ten this year: Hot, or Not?

[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "

#CollegeFootball #Betting Question: Is the #Big10 All That?

— SBR Sports Picks (@SBRSportsPicks) August 30, 2017
\n"}[/]

What do you think? Let us know by answering this poll, and we’ll be back soon with some more #Betting101 goodness.

comment here