#Betting101: Pass the Old El Paso on Early Week 13 Lines

Jason Lake

Monday, November 20, 2017 2:06 PM UTC

Monday, Nov. 20, 2017 2:06 PM UTC

The winless UTEP Miners opened as massive underdogs on the Week 13 college football lines. Their awful away performance makes the UAB Blazers worth a look this Saturday.

Free NCAAF Pick: UAB -20Best Line Offered: Pinnacle

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We’ve had a lot of fun and success with our #Betting101 college football picks this year. Unfortunately, last week wasn’t kind to us. The Arkansas State Red Wolves (–26.5 at home) didn’t have quite enough jam to cover the Texas State Bobcats, winning 30-12, but at least we can claim a moral victory here at the home office: We had the Wolves at –24.5 on the early lines. It pays to shop early – in the long run, that is.

So let’s hammer those opening lines on the Week 13 NCAAF odds board. Our target: the UTEP Miners (0-11 SU, 2-9 ATS). They’re one of the very worst teams in the FBS, ranking No. 129 out of 130 on the F/+ Combined Ratings at Football Outsiders heading into Week 12. And they’ve got a tough matchup this Saturday against the No. 76-ranked UAB Blazers (7-4 SU, 8-3 ATS), kicking off at 1 p.m. Eastern. The Miners are 20-point road dogs for their season finale, and it’s an away game at Legion Field, which could make all the difference for our purposes. UTEP is 10-20 ATS on the road since Sean Kugler replaced Mike Price as head coach.

The Miner Leagues

The story for the Miners took a twist after Week 5, when Kugler stepped down and Price took over on an interim basis. That didn’t stop the madness; UTEP is 0-3 ATS on the road since then, although we went with the UNDER in their 30-3 loss to Middle Tennessee (–20.5) in Week 10. Again, we could have had Blue Raiders at –17 if we had chosen to go in that direction. Shop smart.

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Giants win!   Someone sign McAdoo to a contract right now...

...with UTEP

— Todd (@toddc14) November 19, 2017

Will we take the point spread this time? ESPN’s Football Power Index has UAB’s chances of victory at 90.8 percent, or around –19.5 according to Wizard of Odds. Seems like a fairly tight line. The Blazers are not a very good home team at all; they play at –2.31 Points Above Expectation at Legion Field, according to ESPN’s Brad Edwards and Seth Walder. Saturday is Senior Day, though, and UAB is 5-0 ATS at home this year. Do the Miners care enough if they go winless? We’re willing to bet a small sum that they don’t.

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