#Betting101: More Love for Arkansas State on Week 12 NCAAF Lines

arkansas state football

Jason Lake

Monday, November 13, 2017 1:52 PM GMT

Monday, Nov. 13, 2017 1:52 PM GMT

The Arkansas State Red Wolves have been cleaning up in the Sun Belt. Are they the right college football pick for Saturday’s game against the Texas State Bobcats?

Free NCAAF Pick: Arkansas State –24.5Best Line Offered: Pinnacle

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It’s a crazy world out there on the college football betting lines. Look at all the damage that’s been done to the top seeds over the past several weeks – you can add both the No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs and the No. 3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish to the pile after what happened in Week 11. What can we tell you? That’s the way the prolate spheroid bounces.

We can also tell you this: The mid-majors are where you’ll find the biggest profit margins on the NCAAF odds board. Mid-majors and low majors, that is. The Sun Belt Conference is as low as it gets in the FBS, but that’s where the Arkansas State Red Wolves (5-3 SU, 6-2 ATS) live, and they’re 21-8 ATS in conference play under head coach Blake Anderson. Let’s see if they belong in our Week 12 college football picks.

 

Red Means Green

Our potential victim: the Texas State Bobcats (2-8 SU, 4-6 ATS). They’ll be in Jonesboro this Saturday at 3:00 p.m. ET, and Arkansas State has already shot up from –24.5 to –26 on the early NCAAF lines. Is there any value left in the Red Wolves at these odds?

Quite possibly. ESPN’s Football Power Index likes Arkansas State to win 95.7 percent of the time; that’s about the same as –26.5, according to the college football numbers at Wizard of Odds. And the Wolves are still available at –24.5 as we go to press. They say a line that’s off by two points from the projections is a line worth betting – although these two points don’t seem nearly as important as, say, moving from –4.5 to –2.5.

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Unfortunately, it looks like Arkansas State and their coach were too busy making jokes about the Razorbacks and forgot to prepare for their own opponent. Red Wolves lose to (3-6) South Alabama despite being double digit favorites.

— Jeff Yeager (@jyeag4) November 12, 2017
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Of course, there are no deadbolt locks when you bet on sports. Arkansas State dropped its first Sun Belt game SU and ATS last week, falling 24-19 to the South Alabama Jaguars (+12.5 at home). And Texas State covered last week, losing 33-30 to the Georgia State Panthers as 5.5-point home dogs. But in this situation at these prices, we’re happy to recommend the Wolves for Week 12; they play +1.51 Points Above Expectation at home, according to ESPN’s Brad Edwards and Seth Walder. Works for us.

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