#Betting101: Loading Up for Midweek College Football Profits

ohio football

Jason Lake

Tuesday, September 5, 2017 1:54 PM GMT

Tuesday, Sep. 5, 2017 1:54 PM GMT

If they’re going to play college football in the middle of the week, we might as well bet on it – if we can find a good enough price on the Week 2 NCAAF odds board.

Previously on #Betting101:

Free Pick: Houston -1 (action has moved line slightly)”

It sure has. Since we put the Houston Cougars in our early Week 2 college football picks, they’ve moved as high as –2.5 for Saturday’s road game (10:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU) against Rich Rodriguez and the Arizona Wildcats. See how this works now? Get in early, get the best price.

Oh, one other thing about this game: Houston’s Week 1 matchup with the UTSA Roadrunners was postponed because of Hurricane Harvey. That’s kind of important. People get hurt playing football, so the longer gap you have between games, the better your chances of winning. Arizona beat the Northern Arizona Lumberjacks (Big Sky Conference) 62-24 on Saturday, cashing in as 26-point home faves after backup QB Khalil Tate took a tumble on his right shoulder and had to leave the game. The ‘Cats defense also gave up 562 yards. To an FCS team. Duly noted.
 

Ohio vs. Everything

Now let’s move on to Week 2. Normally, there would be a ton of midweek games to look at, and these games can be tough to peg; they fall into that valley between following the sharps early and fading the public late. But there’s not much going on this week – three games in total, and only two of them (both on Friday) have seen their lines go up on the NCAAF odds board. Phooey.

Well, at least we’ve narrowed our choices down to two:

 No. 10 Oklahoma State Cowboys at South Alabama Jaguars (8:00 p.m. ET, ESPN2)
 Ohio Bobcats at Purdue Boilermakers (8:00 p.m. ET, FS1)

Let’s start by going directly to ESPN’s Football Power Index-based projections for these two games. Computers, baby! They have Oklahoma State winning 95.1 percent of the time and Ohio 51.5 percent of the time. What do those percentages look like when you run them through the glorious SBR Betting Odds Converter and turn them into moneylines?

Oklahoma State -1942
Ohio -106

Well, that’s interesting. There isn’t a moneyline on OSU-USA, but -1942 works out to around –22.5 on the point spread, according to the NFL numbers (close enough for government work) at Wizard of Odds. The Cowboys are 28-point favorites at press time. And the Boilermakers are -190 ML favorites against the visiting Bobcats. Yes, very interesting indeed.
 


Also interesting: Our consensus numbers show 69 percent of bettors on both OSU and Purdue. Oh my goodness. And the preseason Fremeau Efficiency Index has Ohio ranked No. 93, ahead of the Boilers at No. 104. There’s a ridiculous gap between the Pokes (No. 20) and the Jags (No. 106) that we could try to parse, but we’ll just take the Bobcats instead, thank you kindly. The numbers have spoken.

Free NCAAF Pick: Ohio +5Best Line Offered: Youwager

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