#Betting101: Kicking the Gators While They’re Down

Florida Gators

Jason Lake

Wednesday, September 27, 2017 7:47 PM GMT

Wednesday, Sep. 27, 2017 7:47 PM GMT

The Florida Gators will be missing several players when they host the Vanderbilt Commodores this Saturday. Their scandal could pay off handsomely for our NCAAF picks.

I was just thinking about our most recent article, where I said taking the arbitrage play on Sunday’s Cal-Oregon game might not be worth it because the return is so small: 21 cents if you bet $100 on the Bears (+527) and $19.02 on the Ducks (–520). If it takes you two minutes to process that bet, that’s around $6 an hour for your labor. But what if you bet $1000 on Cal and $190.20 on Oregon?

This is where bankroll management comes in. If you’ve got the money, you have the means to take advantage of these very small edges with your college football picks. Otherwise, your incentive is to stick with the bigger exploits, like Saturday’s Arizona State-Stanford game. Free money on that matchup (4:00 p.m. ET, PAC12) is still available at press time, by the way. Want some? Go get some.
 

Vandy is Dandy

Now let’s move on to those wacky Florida Gators. In case you haven’t heard, the Gators (2-1 SU, 0-3 ATS) have nine players on suspension, including WR Antonio Callaway and RB Jordan Scarlett, and according to the news wires, those players are facing possible third-degree felony charges over a credit card scam. College football, ladies and gentlemen.

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Some updated info on the #Gators charges and suspensions as we continue to unpack this story - https://t.co/MghgqYzSBd pic.twitter.com/HL5eiAEqSY

— Thomas Goldkamp (@ThomasGoldkamp) September 25, 2017
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The No. 21 Gators have an intriguing game coming up Saturday (noon ET, ESPN) against the visiting Vanderbilt Commodores, who are 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS and looking for redemption after getting blown out 59-0 last week by the No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide (–19.5 away). The ‘Dores are 10-point puppies on the NCAAF odds board at press time, up from +9.5 at the open despite a supermajority of early bettors taking Vanderbilt. Some books even got in early with Miami laying just 7.5 points before realizing the error of their ways. Gotta get some more of that Vandy money before all those Florida bettors jump on the bandwagon.

The projections are actually on Florida’s side here. ESPN’s Football Power Index likes the Gators to win 82.7 percent of the time, or around Florida –11.5 for a kayfabe point spread. But those numbers deserve a side-eye because of all the suspensions. The Gators are also going back to QB Luke Del Rio as their starter, and that definitely wasn’t the plan in the offseason when they gave Feleipe Franks the nod over Del Rio and Notre Dame graduate transfer Malik Zaire. Maybe Florida –7.5 was the “right” line for this game after all.

Free College Football Pick: Vanderbilt +10 (–105)
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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