#Betting101: K-State’s Home-Field Advantage is Yooge

Jason Lake

Monday, November 6, 2017 2:12 PM UTC

Monday, Nov. 6, 2017 2:12 PM UTC

Love him or hate him, Bill Snyder usually gets the job done in the stadium that bears his name. Will he lead the Kansas State Wildcats to NCAAF betting glory again this week?

Free NCAAF Pick: Kansas State –2.5Best Line Offered: BetOnline

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Things are definitely going crazy on the college football odds board. We had a ton of news come down the pike last week, from NCAAF handle overtaking the NFL to the Florida Gators firing head coach Jim McElwain. It sure didn’t help the Gators out last week against the Missouri Tigers – yeesh. But more important, we made out fine with last week’s instalment of #Betting101, where we recommended the UNDER in Saturday’s game between the UTEP Miners and the MTSU Blue Raiders. Final score: Miners 3, Raiders 30 (UNDER 50.5).

What does Week 11 have in store for our NCAAF picks? The very early college football lines have just hit the board, and once again we’re looking at the Kansas State Wildcats at home this Saturday (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2) against the No. 23 West Virginia Mountaineers. Heading into the new season, Kansas State was 88-46 ATS at home under head coach Bill Snyder. They’re 3-2 ATS this year after nearly upsetting Oklahoma in Week 8. Let’s give this matchup the once-over and see if it suits our purposes.

 Twice as Hard

It’s way too early for consensus reports or even line moves at press time, so let’s go straight to the math. The Wildcats (4-4 SU, 3-4-1 ATS) have opened as 2.5-point home faves; according to ESPN’s Football Power Index, K-State projects to win 62.7 percent of the time. Wizard of Odds says that’s the rough equivalent of –4.5. Delightful!

There’s definitely something special happening at Bill Snyder Family Stadium. We’ve been talking a lot about those Points Above Expectation numbers from ESPN’s Brad Edwards and Seth Walder, and the numbers look tremendous for the Wildcats – they’ve been good for plus-3.31 PAE in Manhattan since 2005. It’s a common rule of thumb to give college football teams three points for home-field advantage. The Wildcats deserve more than twice that.

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Meanwhile... and stop me if you’ve heard it before…

Bill Snyder’s team found a way

— Brandon Chatmon (@BChatmon) November 4, 2017

Even better, the Mountaineers (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS) have had a horrible time against Kansas State since making the move to the Big 12, going 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS overall with the UNDER a perfect 5-0. And Saturday’s long-range forecast calls for rain over Manhattan. That should put a damper on West Virginia’s otherwise outstanding offense. We’ll take Kansas State, thank you kindly, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.

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