#Betting101: Jumping on the Early Week 5 NCAAF Odds

Jason Lake

Monday, September 25, 2017 2:06 PM UTC

Monday, Sep. 25, 2017 2:06 PM UTC

It pays to be early when you make your college football picks. Getting in on the Kansas State Wildcats at home this Saturday before anyone else does? Priceless.

Another week of college football is in the books. How did we do with our NCAAF picks? Let’s have a look:

Arkansas +3 (–115) vs. Texas A&M: LOSS
Rice –2 vs. Florida International: LOSS

Well, sugar. The Razorbacks lost 50-43 in overtime after giving up the game-tying field goal with four seconds left, and the Owls lost 13-7 after driving within the FIU 10-yard line late in the fourth quarter. It is what it is. Hopefully you got some of that free money on the arbitrage play between Utah and Arizona; the ‘Cats did indeed lose that one, 30-24 as 4.5-point puppies, so make them 10-21 ATS in this situation under head coach Rich Rodriguez.

Moving on. The lines for Week 5 are already up on the NCAAF odds board, and we’re going to revisit a betting trend we passed up in Week 2: The Kansas State Wildcats are 90-46 ATS at home under semi-legendary coach Bill Snyder. They ended up beating the Charlotte 49ers 55-7 as 33.5-point faves, but the math wasn’t with K-State at the time. Will Saturday’s game (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2) against the Baylor Bears be more to our liking?

Snyder Family Values

The good thing about getting in early is we can still bag the Wildcats (2-1 SU and ATS) at –14 if we want them – or at least we can at press time. The odds haven’t changed since they went on the board about five hours ago. And our first consensus reports show 59 percent of early-bird bettors on Kansas State. It seems like the sharp play.

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Bill Snyder Saving some tips for future Bill Snyder #FootballGuy pic.twitter.com/BMZOeWz4m3

— Big Cat (@BarstoolBigCat) September 17, 2017

We still have to do the math. ESPN’s Football Power Index says the ‘Cats will win 83.3 percent of the time; that’s something like Kansas State –12. Hallelujah. They were No. 25 on the Week 4 F+/ ratings at Football Outsiders, 15 spots ahead of Baylor (0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS), and the gap between the two might shrink a little after the Bears gave the No. 3 Oklahoma Sooners a scare before losing 49-41 as 27.5-point home dogs. But the Wildcats had the week off, and we’re still dealing with a Baylor program that’s mired in scandal. We’ll buy that for a dollar.

Free NFL Pick: Kansas State –14 (–105)
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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