#Betting101: Jumping on the Earliest Week 7 Lines

michigan indiana

Jason Lake

Monday, October 9, 2017 1:17 PM GMT

Monday, Oct. 9, 2017 1:17 PM GMT

The Michigan Wolverines may have been upset in Week 6, but they’ve opened as 6.5-point road faves on the Week 7 college football odds board vs. the Indiana Hoosiers.

You have to hand it to the fine folks at BetOnline. Every time I visit the NCAAF odds board on a Sunday looking for the first lines, there they are at our service. They don’t pull their odds out of thin air, of course, but if you want to get some value out of this sport, those opening lines are about as soft as they come. One game in particular caught our attention here at the home office: Saturday’s (noon Eastern, ABC) between the No. 17 Michigan Wolverines and the Indiana Hoosiers.

The Wolverines (4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS) slid from No. 7 in the polls coming off a 14-10 loss to the rival Michigan State Spartans (+13 away), who take home the Paul Bunyan Trophy for the eighth time in 10 years. Michigan might be a bounce-back candidate in Week 7, and the Hoosiers (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) are known more for their basketball prowess, but do the Maize and Blue merit laying 6.5 points on the road?
 

Bouncy-Bouncy

Sharp bettors seem to think so. Our very early consensus reports show 100 percent of first responders taking Michigan at –7, which was the line posted at 5Dimes not long after BetOnline showed up. That was down to 67 percent in a matter of minutes. However, these surveys might need some fleshing out once the sample size gets bigger, so don’t take them as gospel.

Don’t make your college football picks based purely on the math, either, but the math is on Indiana’s side in this case. FiveThirtyEight projects the Wolverines to win Saturday’s game 61 percent of the time, as part of their larger National Championship projections that we’ll revisit soon. That translates to something like Michigan –3.5. ESPN’s Football Power Index projections are more optimistic at 62.6 percent, or Michigan –4. This could be a lovely spot to fade the Wolverines; then again, there’s the bounce-back dynamic after losing as double-digit faves in Week 6.

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Sooners, Wolverines lost, changes coming? The new #APTop25 will drop at 2p ET. What's your top five, fans? https://t.co/kvzcbh4G3y pic.twitter.com/3AQlfxMGR8

— AP Top 25 (@AP_Top25) October 8, 2017
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We’re going to go ahead and fade Michigan for a small sum. We learned on Saturday that senior QB Wilton Speight suffered three broken vertebrae last month against Purdue and could miss the rest of the season. Senior John O’Korn filled in against Michigan State and went 16-of-35 for 198 yards, zero touchdowns and three picks. Again, small sample size, but not a good sign for the Wolverines. And we can even get Indiana at the magic number 7. Maybe the opening lines aren’t always the best lines after all.

Free NCAAF Pick: Indiana +7 (–120)Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

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