#Betting101: Getting the Jump on Week 8 NCAAF Lines

oklahoma kansas state

Jason Lake

Tuesday, October 17, 2017 12:30 PM GMT

Tuesday, Oct. 17, 2017 12:30 PM GMT

Have the Kansas State Wildcats lost their home-field mojo? Or should we still put them in our Week 8 NCAAF picks this Saturday against the visiting Oklahoma Sooners in Big 12 action?

Even when you get your NCAAF picks exactly right, the football gods don’t always play along. We faded the Michigan Wolverines right out of the gate last week as 7-point road faves against the Indiana Hoosiers, and everything looked swell with Michigan up by three points late in the fourth quarter. Then the Hoosiers kicked a game-tying field goal with no time on the clock, and the Wolverines scored a touchdown in overtime to win 27-20 and force a push. Oy gevalt.

Then again, we put out faith in Syracuse (+23) and California (+14.5) as double-digit home dogs Friday night, despite the overall downward trend on home dogs, and they both won straight-up. Sometimes, you just have to stick with the program – and that’s our plan as we try to get in front of the college football odds for Week 8. We’ve got the Kansas State Wildcats lined up as 12.5-point home dogs this Saturday (4:00 p.m. ET, FOX) versus the No. 9 Oklahoma Sooners in the Big 12. The ‘Cats are 90-48 ATS at home under head coach Bill Snyder, but only 2-2 ATS this year after dropping the cash in back-to-back games. Once more unto the breach?
 

Ertz So Good

The early consensus reports are urging us on. They show 88 percent of first responders taking Kansas State (3-3 SU, 2-3-1 ATS) as a 13-point favorite at the open. We’d like that half-point back, of course, but it’s only worth about five cents of vigorish, and there are plenty of lines at –105 juice or better as we go to press.

As for the math, FiveThirtyEight likes the Sooners to win this game 75 percent of the time, which only works out to –8 or so, using the NFL numbers at Wizard of Odds as a rough guide. ESPN’s Football Power Index has Oklahoma’s chances at 79.9 percent, or –10.5. There should be plenty of profit margin available on K-State at their current NCAAF odds.

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My bro played his heart out yesterday in his first career start against the #6 team in the country! Great experience and big things ahead ✊🏼 pic.twitter.com/2KEAK259sB

— Jesse Ertz (@JSisco16) October 15, 2017
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The matchup itself plays into our hands somewhat. Oklahoma is coming off an emotional Week 7 win over the Texas Longhorns in the Red River Showdown, while the ‘Cats found themselves in tough against the No. 6 TCU Horned Frogs in a game that was delayed for three hours by lightning. We don’t want to put too much money on Kansas State with backup QB Alex Delton taking over for the injured Jesse Ertz (knee), but let’s give them a spin now that Delton has had some reps in Snyder’s offense.

Free NFL Pick: Kansas State +12.5Best Line Offered: BetOnline

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