#Betting101: Fading Arizona on Early Week 9 NCAAF Lines?

Wazzou Betting 101

Jason Lake

Monday, October 23, 2017 12:23 PM GMT

Monday, Oct. 23, 2017 12:23 PM GMT

The Arizona Wildcats have opened as small underdogs to the Washington State Cougars on this week’s college football lines. That usually means it’s time to fade the ‘Cats.

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Some NCAAF betting trends are more reliable than others. Last week, the Kansas State Wildcats were our college football pick as 12.5-point home dogs against the No. 9 Oklahoma Sooners, taking a 90-48 ATS home record under head coach Bill Snyder into Bill Snyder Family Stadium. The Wildcats nearly won outright before falling 42-35 on a late OU touchdown. Easy money.

The first lines have just hit the Week 9 NCAAF odds board as we go to press, and this week, the spotlight returns to the Arizona Wildcats, who went into the 2017 campaign with a 10-19 ATS record as underdogs under coach Rich Rodriguez. The ‘Cats (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) honked their first two games for us in this situation, but won the next two to improve to 12-21 ATS. They’ve opened as 2.5-point home dogs versus the No. 15 Washington State Cougars. Let’s see if the conditions are right to keep fading Arizona.
 

Up Wazzu

Since Washington State (7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS) is still being given a non-zero chance to win the National Championship over at FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silver’s crew has a projection for Saturday’s game (9:30 p.m. ET), and they’ve got the Cougars winning 52 percent of the time. That works out to around Wazzu –1, using the NFL numbers at Wizard of Odds as a rough guide – and that’s being generous to Washington State.

ESPN’s Football Power Index bumps Washington State’s chances up to 53.3 percent, or Wazzu –1 on the nose. This isn’t the first time the math hasn’t matched up with our desired NCAAF pick, and once again, we’re going to simply abandon it and look for something else. Next stop: Aggie Memorial Stadium in Las Cruces, where the New Mexico State Aggies will host the Arkansas State Red Wolves at 8:00 p.m. Eastern on Saturday. The Wolves (4-2 SU, 5-1 ATS) are 4.5-point road faves, and they’re 20-7 ATS in Sun Belt action under Blake Anderson. Deal, or no deal?

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Great stat.  ASU offensive line had a grand total of 2 starts returning .

— Steve Sullivan (@sully7777) October 20, 2017
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No deal. The FPI projections only have Arkansas State at 55.3 percent, or around –1.5. Target No. 3: the South Alabama Jaguars, who visit the Georgia State Panthers this Thursday (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU). The Jags are 2.5-point road faves, but they’re only 10-14 ATS under Joey Jones when laying points. And finally, the math agrees: Georgia State (3-3 SU and ATS) is 50.5 percent to win this matchup according to the FPI numbers. We’ll buy that for a dollar.

Free College Football Pick: Georgia State +2.5 (–105)
Best Line: at BetOnline
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