#Betting101: Early NCAAF Betting Opportunities for Week 6

Arizona Wildcats

Jason Lake

Monday, October 2, 2017 12:16 PM GMT

Monday, Oct. 2, 2017 12:16 PM GMT

The Arizona Wildcats have been awful as underdogs, so fading the ‘Cats could be the right college football pick for Saturday’s game versus the Colorado Buffaloes.

There are a lot of happy bettors out there right now. The sportsbooks? Not so much. Favorites went 47-8 SU and 32-20-3 ATS (61.5 percent) during Week 5 of the college football season. How did we do here at the ranch? The envelope, please...

Vanderbilt (+10, –105) at Florida LOSS
Kansas State (–14, –105) vs. Baylor LOSS

I hate it when a plan doesn’t come together. The Commodores gave up a late touchdown to Florida in a 38-24 loss, and Kansas State didn’t quite get there in a 33-20 win. Absorbing these near-misses is no fun, but it’s part of the business; that free money we got from taking both sides in the Arizona State-Stanford game will cushion the blow.

Let’s move on quickly to our Week 6 college football picks. We’ve got another opportunity to fade the Arizona Wildcats as underdogs, a role in which they’re 10-21 ATS under head coach Rich Rodriguez. They’ve opened as 6.5-point road dogs for Saturday’s matchup (8:00 p.m. ET) against the Colorado Buffaloes. Our consensus reports show 64 percent of first responders taking Colorado. Seems legit.
 

Lowered Expectations

So what’s the deal with these Football Power Index numbers from ESPN? They’ve got Arizona winning 51.2 percent of the time, which is pretty much a pick ‘em. Better bring in the football nerds from Sports Reference; they have Colorado (4.96 SRS) ranked No. 57 overall in the FBS using their Simple Rating System, well ahead of Arizona (2.15 SRS) at No. 73 overall. Better, but it still works out to something like Colorado –5.

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Top #ArizonaWildcats stories:

-Nasty NCAA hoops scandal involving Feds

-Current FB player charged DV

-Fmr FB player goes to prison for DV

— Zach Clark (@ZachEClark) September 29, 2017
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We’ve backed away from the ‘Cats before when the math wasn’t right. The moneylines aren’t out yet for this matchup, that’s how fresh these NCAAF odds are, so unfortunately, we don’t have any arbitrage available. Not yet, at least. We’ll go back to the lab and dig up some better opportunities for you as the rest of the odds come out for Week 6. Until then, may the prolate spheroid be with you.

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