Bet Wisconsin -10 vs. Iowa for Week 13 College Football Picks

Darin Zank

Friday, November 21, 2014 6:10 PM GMT

This handicapper is high on Wisconsin, which is riding a five-game winning streak, with four ATS covers in a row. Do we play the hungry Badgers to extend those runs when they meet Iowa in Iowa City Saturday afternoon?

Badgers-Hawkeyes Betting Odds
Most of the college football odds opened Wisconsin at right around -9 over Iowa, with a total of 52. Most shops then quickly bumped the Badgers to -10, and -10.5.

Those who believe the Hawkeyes might pull the upset as home dogs in this spot could get a price of +325 on the moneyline at Bookmaker.

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":, "sportsbooksIds":[19,43,227,1096,999996,93,238,123,139], "LineTypeId":5, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

 

Badgers-Hawkeyes: The Match-Up
Wisconsin went off this season as a 9/2 choice to win the Big Ten, with a wins OVER/UNDER of 9.5. So at 8-2 SU (5-5 ATS) the Badgers need to win their last two games, against Iowa and Minnesota, to play OVER their total. And at 5-1 in Big Ten play Wisconsin leads the West Division by a game over the Gophers, Iowa and Nebraska.

The Badgers opened this season by blowing a 24-7 third-quarter lead and losing to LSU 28-24. Wisconsin then won three games in a row, but then laid an egg in a 20-14 loss at Northwestern. Since then, though, the Badgers have won their last five games, beating Illinois 38-28, Maryland 52-7, Rutgers 37-0, Purdue 34-16 and, last week, Nebraska 59-24.

Wisconsin spotted the Huskers an early 17-7 lead, then scored 52 points in a row, as running back Melvin Gordon exploded for 408 yards rushing and four touchdowns. The Badgers outgained Nebraska 627-180, and as a team ran for 581 yards against a supposedly stout Blackshirts defense.

Gordon gets the well-deserved accolades, as he leaps into Heisman contention, but Wisconsin's defense now ranks No. 1 in the country, holding foes to just 244 yards per game on the season.

On the homey side of this match-up, Iowa went off this season as a 10/1 shot to win the Big Ten, with a wins O/U of 8.5. At 7-3 SU (5-5 ATS), and 4-2 in Big Ten play, the Hawkeyes still have an outside chance to win the Big Ten West, and if they can win their last two games, against the Badgers and Huskers, they'll play OVER their total, too.

Iowa started this season with wins over Northern Iowa and Ball State, but whiffed on both pointspreads as big favorites. The Hawkeyes then got upset at home by Iowa State 20-17. Iowa then won three in a row, beating Pitt, Purdue and Indiana, but then lost at Maryland. The Hawkeyes then pounded Northwestern 48-7, got pounded at Minnesota 51-14, then last week won at Illinois 30-14, covering as six-point road favorites. Iowa outgained the Illini 587-235 and held the ball for almost 36 minutes.

So in four games against common foes this season (Purdue, Maryland, Northwestern and Illinois), Wisconsin is 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS, while the Hawkeyes are 3-1 both SU and ATS.

 

Badgers-Hawkeyes Recent History
Last year Wisconsin pulled away for a 28-9 victory over Iowa also at Kinnick Stadium, covering as a nine-point road favorite. The Badgers outrushed the Hawkeyes 218-110, and scored twice in the last seven minutes to turn a close game into cash. Before last year's game these border rivals hadn't met since 2010.

 

Badgers-Hawkeyes Betting Trends
Wisconsin is 5-5 on the totals this season, as Badgers games have averaged 54 points.

Iowa is also 5-5 on the totals, as Hawkeyes games have averaged 51 points.

 

Badgers-Hawkeyes Free Pick
If Nebraska beats Minnesota – that game should go final before this game kicks off – Wisconsin can clinch the West with a victory.

Iowa would be wise to keep the ball away from Gordon and Co., but the Wisconsin defense has been improving as the season has progressed. The combination of a hot running back and a hot defense points us toward the Badgers for our college football picks.

Free College Football Pick: Wisconsin -10 at 5Dimes