Bet Western Michigan to Easily Cover Double Digit Spread vs. Ball State

Joe Gavazzi

Tuesday, November 3, 2015 7:04 PM GMT

Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2015 7:04 PM GMT

Ball State travels to Western Michigan for this MAC West showdown. Let's review the college football odds first, so we can give out the free college football pick inside.

Ball State vs. Western Michigan (-14) 7:00PM ET
Ball State travels to Western Michigan for this MAC West showdown that features a line that is surprisingly competitive. Ball State is 3-6 SU, 4-5 ATS for the season with a (-38) AFP. Western Michigan is 5-3 SU for the season, winners of 4 league games, and 6-1 ATS. As a result, they have a (+50) AFP. Normally, you would see a line inflated by 7 to 10 points from where it would have been opening week. Despite those numbers, this line is little more than a FG from where it would have been opening week.

 

Matchup Overview
In this very space last week, I authored an analysis of the Western Michigan game in their contest against Eastern Michigan. Based on the strong numbers at the point of attack, I felt the odds were in our favor that Western would steamroll their regional rival. That played to form in a resounding (58-28) victory. Yet, they will be well prepared for this matchup with the realization that they could squeeze by Ball State by only a 42-38 count last year and that the last time Ball appeared on this field, the Cardinals won the game 38-17.

This year, however, is a different story for Ball State, though the Cardinals are 2-3 SU in MAC play, those wins have come vs. UMass and E. Michigan (the weakest team in the loop). The Achilles Heel for Ball State has been a rushing defense that allows 187/4.6. It is part of a defense that has been allowing 480 YPG and 6.3 YP play. 

Western Michigan enters this contest with great momentum following resounding victories of (49-14) at Ohio, (35-13) vs. Miami, OH and (58-28) vs. E. Michigan. Look for that momentum to carry over for an offense that is averaging 46 PPG in league play. They are led by QB Terrell, who is completing 70% of his passes with a 20/6 ratio. The offense is nicely balanced with a running game that averages 190/5.1 behind backfield triplets, Franklin, Bogan and Bellamy.

 

Final Analysis   
Knowing the above information, it is a virtual must that we put the college football odds in our favor with this value priced mid-range favorite.  I invite you to join me for my college football pick on this midweek MAC blowout, as the Western Michigan Broncos put up 200 club offensive numbers and steamroll their way against the permissive defense of Ball State

College Football Pick: Western Michigan -14.5 at Heritage

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