Bet on Underdog Upset in Texas vs. Kansas St. NCAAF Pick

Joe Gavazzi

Friday, October 24, 2014 1:24 PM GMT

This is one College Football match which the entire handicapping world will be waiting for, as it is one of this tipster's underdogs of the week: Texas Longhorns vs. Kansas State Wildcats. 

With the Texas Longhorns, I go for the 9th consecutive UNDERDOG OF THE WEEK ATS College Football picks!  All selections have been underdogs of 7 or more points.  Five of those 8 victories have been outright wins by our UNDERDOG.  That includes last week’s win by Kansas St., our victim today!  More about that in just a moment!  

In the opening of this paragraph, I stated it was ONE of the games that is awaited.  For surely, the public sits on the edge of their collective chair with the announcement that I have isolated yet another 6% play in CFB this Saturday.  These games are a perfect 3-0 ATS this season, running the 2 year record to 35-4 ATS (90%) with these vaunted plays. 

As pointed out in the previous paragraph, Kansas St. did win outright for us as our UNDERDOG OF THE WEEK.  But, neither the stats, the situation, nor the College Football odds , confirm this victory.  Oklahoma outrushed and out passed Kansas St. for a combined yardage edge of 533-385.  But, it was the special teams of veteran Kansas St. HC Synder and a TO free game (the Wildcats were +2 net TOs) that keyed the victory.  Kansas St. needed a blocked extra point and a late game missed field goal from the normally reliable Oklahoma kicker to ascend to victory.  That win lifts the Wildcats atop the Big 12 at 3-0 as the league’s only undefeated team.  As a result of that phony ascent, the Wildcats are due for a downer.  That, despite the fact that there are some lofty HC Snyder numbers suggesting otherwise.  

First, his Wildcats play with 21-31 revenge for a loss to Texas last year.  Fundamentals played out in the Longhorns favor of that victory, as they outrushed the Cats 227-115 and were a +3 in the net TO margin.  Now, consider that Snyder is 6-0 ATS in revenge, that his Wildcats have covered 4 straight games this season, and that he is 13-6 ATS on this field of late. 

Last week, I was embarrassed with my selection on Texas.  The offense performed as commanded, amassing 513 yards.  But, it was what appeared to be a quickly improving defense that allowed an Iowa St. team, who is 0-4 SU in the league, to put up 45 points.  Only a late game rally by Texas QB Swoopes in the final 30 seconds led to the winning field goal and the 48-45 victory.  Those numbers for the quickly improving Texas offense cannot be overstated.  For Swoopes has now thrown for 334 and 321 PY in his last 2 games.  First year HC Strong has made his mark on the defensive side of the ball.  You know there will be full attention to that unit after last week’s embarrassing performance.  As a result of Strong’s defensive pedigree, he now features the following pointspread history.  While coaching Louisville and Texas, Strong is now 20-8 SU, 21-7 ATS on the road, including a perfect 13-0 ATS when facing a Class A opponent, as well as 10-3 ATS overall in the role of underdog. 

With the Wildcats a bit fat at the top of the standings, and off a phony upset victory last week, we take advantage of an inflated number with a hungry Texas team who is on the ascent, yet fully motivated by the embarrassing defensive performance against Iowa St.   Expect an easy ATS winner and a potential upset by the quickly improving Longhorns.     

Free College Picks: Texas +9.5 at Pinnacle

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