Big 12 Week 9 Overview: Cowboys Have No Firepower vs. Longhorns 

Longhorns vs. Cowboys

Jay Pryce

Monday, October 22, 2018 2:41 PM UTC

Monday, Oct. 22, 2018 2:41 PM UTC

Our free Big 12 college football pick for Week 9 advises to lay the points with No. 6 Texas at Oklahoma State. Opening lines, betting trends and other info to help calculate score predictions for the full slate of conference games here.  

Big 12 Spotlight: No. 6 Texas (-3) at Oklahoma StateSaturday, 8 p.m. ET, on ABCFree NCAAF Pick: Texas ATSBest Line Offered: Heritage


Texas (6-1 SU, 3-4 ATS) is the only undefeated team remaining in Big 12 play. Coming off a bye, all eyes are on the status of starting quarterback Sam Ehlinger. The sophomore sustained a grade 1 shoulder sprain in the 23-17 win over Baylor in Week 7, missing the majority of the contest. Coach Tom Herman says Ehlinger is “progressing right on schedule,” yet some reports suggest he did not throw a ball during the open date. With four remaining conference games on the schedule, expect a conservative call Saturday regarding Ehlinger’s availability.

Junior Shane Buechele is ready to command the Longhorns under center. Despite the perception, there is little drop-off in terms of points production between the two signal-callers. When Buechele, a former starter, attempts 10 passes or more in a contest, Texas puts up 30.7 points per game. The total is identical to what the Longhorns average behind Ehlinger.

An improved defense is the difference-maker between the records of each quarterback. Texas yields 27.7 points per game behind Buechele, who is 10-9 SU and 9-10 ATS all-time guiding the first team. It backs Ehlinger with 21.7 allowed through 14 contests. The sophomore is 9-5 SU and 9-4-1 ATS overall.

Oklahoma State (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS) is in the midst of a rebuilding year, dropping three of its last four straight-up and against the spread. The usual high-powered offense is posting up just 29.8 points on 421 yards per game through four Big 12 matchups. To put this in perspective, the Cowboys averaged 39.1 and 505 since the start of 2015 against conference rivals.

The Cowboys tend to rollover in Stillwater hosting Big 12 opponents. Since November 2013, Gundy’s squad is just 12-10 SU and 6-14-2 ATS (30 percent) at home, surrendering 33.7 points per game. Catching points all-time at Boone Pickens Stadium, the longtime head coach is just 5-11 SU and 5-10-1 ATS, yielding 37.9 points per tilt.

The numbers suggest the Longhorns will threaten five touchdowns, while Herman surrenders 24.9 all-time to Big 12 foes. Ignore the quarterback situation for the Longhorns. Either arm will prove effective. The Cowboys just don’t have the firepower to compete. Lay the points.

[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "

Longhorns move ⬆️1️⃣ spot to #️⃣6️⃣ in this week’s @AP_Top25. #ThisIsTexas #HookEm pic.twitter.com/MY9JvDxR7O

— Texas Football (@TexasFootball) October 21, 2018
\n\n"}[/]

Around the Big 12 (All Games Saturday Unless Noted)

Baylor at No. 13 West Virginia (-14), Thursday, 7 p.m. ET, on FS1

West Virginia (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS) is just 8-14 ATS (36.4 percent) laying points to conference opponents at Mountaineer Field since joining the Big 12. Baylor (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS), on the other hand, has covered nine of its last 13 against conference rivals spotted double digits on the college football oddsboard.

Texas Tech at Iowa State (-4.5), noon ET, on ESPN2

This is just the third time in the last 20 years (14 meetings) Texas Tech (5-2 SU, 5-2 ATS) is catching points versus Iowa State (3-3 SU, 4-2 ATS). The Cyclones are 10-4-2 ATS (71.4 percent) at Jack Trice Stadium since Matt Campbell took over as head coach.

TCU (-15.5) at Kansas, 3 p.m. ET, on FS1

Throw out TCU’s (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS) 43-0 rout of Kansas (2-5 SU, 3-4 ATS) last season, and head coach Gary Patterson has never beaten the Jayhawks by more than two touchdowns. In six prior meetings, the Horned Frogs go off -30.9 average favorites.

Kansas State at No. 8 Oklahoma (-23.5), 3:30 p.m. ET, on FOX

Oklahoma (6-1 SU, 3-4 ATS) opened a 19-point favorite in Games of the Year lines back in May. Kansas State (3-4 SU, 4-3 ATS), meanwhile, is 33-14-1 ATS (70.2 percent) catching points in Big 12 clashes during Billy Snyder’s second stint coaching the Wildcats, including covering four of the last five.

comment here