Bet Texas ATS Over West Virginia for College Football Picks

Darin Zank

Wednesday, November 5, 2014 9:39 PM GMT

West Virginia and Texas have met for two high-scoring affairs the last two seasons, both of which played OVER on the totals. Might we expect more of the same when the Mountaineers and Longhorns meet for Homecoming in Austin Saturday afternoon?

Mountaineers-Longhorns Betting Odds
Most college football odds we surfed opened West Virginia as a four-point road favorite over Texas, with a total of 52. In the early betting many of those books dropped the Mountaineers a half-point, to -3.5, while the total held steady.

Bettors who believe the Longhorns might win this game outright could find a price of +150 on the moneyline at Sport Bet.

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":294360, "sportsbooksIds":[19,43,227,1096,999996,93,238,123,139], "LineTypeId":5, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]

 

Mountaineers-Longhorns: The Situation
Texas went off this season, its first under new head coach Charlie Strong, getting around 8/1 to win the Big 12 title, with a wins OVER/UNDER of 7.5. At 4-5 SU (5-4 ATS) and 3-3 in conference play the Longhorns will not win the Big 12, and they won't go OVER their wins total.

Texas began this season with a win over North Texas, but lost back-to-back home games to BYU and UCLA. The 'Horns then opened Big 12 play with a 23-0 victory over Kansas, but then lost 28-7 to Baylor and 31-26 to Oklahoma, even though they outgained the Sooners by 250 yards. Texas then beat Iowa State 48-45, lost at Kansas State 23-0 and, last week, won at Texas Tech 34-13.

The Longhorns got outgained by the Wildcats by 171 yards, but outgained the Red Raiders by 88 yards.

On the other side of this new conference rivalry West Virginia, after going 4-8 last year, went off this year at odds of around 66/1 to win the Big 12, with a wins OVER/UNDER of 4.5. At 6-3 SU (6-3 ATS) and 4-2 in Big 12 play the Mountaineers probably won't win the conference title, but they've already played OVER their betting total.

WVU opened with a 33-23 loss to Alabama, but covered as a 22-point underdog. The Mountaineers then beat Towson 54-0 and Maryland 40-37, before opening Big 12 play with a 45-33 loss at home to Oklahoma 45-33. West Virginia then won four games in a row, including a 41-27 upset of previously unbeaten Baylor. But last week the Mountaineers blew a nine-point, fourth-quarter lead and lost on a field goal at the buzzer to TCU 31-30.

West Virginia got outgained by the Horned Frogs 389-357, outrushed 223-195 and committed five turnovers.

So in four games this season against common opponents (Kansas, Baylor, Oklahoma and Texas Tech) the Mountaineers are 3-1 SU but 1-3 ATS, while the Longhorns are 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS.

 

Mountaineers-Longhorns Recent History
These teams had met just once before West Virginia joined the Big 12 two seasons ago, and have played two very entertaining games the last two seasons. Two years ago QB Geno Smith threw four touchdowns passes to lead the Mountaineers to a 48-45 victory in Austin, but last year Texas went up to Morgantown and beat West Virginia 47-40 in overtime.

Both those games, and you might expect, with those scores, played OVER on the totals.

 

Mountaineers-Longhorns Betting Trends
These two teams are a combined 6-12 on the totals this season, in part because West Virginia's totals have been posted so high, while Texas has struggled on offense but played fairly well on defense.

 

Mountaineers-Longhorns Free Pick
West Virginia owns an advantage on offense, but Texas owns the edge on defense. In cases like this we usually go with the better defense. And it's not too often the Longhorns are lined as home dogs. So in believing the Mountaineers might be a tad overrated going into this one, and that Coach Strong's team might have a strong finish in store, we'll take Texas for our college football picks.

Free College Football Pick: Longhorns +3.5 at 5Dimes