Bet TCU Home Cover vs. Oklahoma State College Football Picks

Darin Zank

Wednesday, October 15, 2014 4:52 PM GMT

Wednesday, Oct. 15, 2014 4:52 PM GMT

TCU just blew what would have been a huge victory at Baylor last week, but still covered the spread, moving to 5-0 ATS on the season. The Frogs will try to recover from that great disappointment in time to host Oklahoma State Saturday afternoon for Homecoming in Fort Worth.

The Betting Odds
As of Wednesday morning the best line we could find on TCU was the -7.5 points offered at Pinnacle, while Oklahoma State could be gotten at +9 at Loose Lines. And most shops were listing the total on this game at 62.

Those who think the Cowboys might win this game outright could get a price of +270 on college football odds at Bet Online.

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The Situation
Oklahoma State, with just eight starters back from a team that went 10-3 last year, figured to go through a rebuilding process this season. But so far the Cowboys have exceeded expectations, winning five of their first six games, going 3-3 ATS, and starting 3-0 in Big 12 play.

Oklahoma State opened this season with a 37-31 loss to Florida State, but covered as an 18-point dog. The Cowboys then beat Missouri State 40-23 and UTSA 43-13. OSU then began Big 12 play with a 45-35 victory over Texas Tech, although it couldn't cover as a two-touchdown favorite. A 37-20 victory over Iowa State followed, with the cover at -16.

Last week the Cowboys won at Kansas 27-20, but couldn't cover as 19-point road favorites. Oklahoma State led 20-7 at the half, allowed the lowly Jayhawks to tie the score at 20-20 with seven minutes left, then won it on Tyreek Hill's 99-yard kickoff return for a score.

OSU got outgained by Kansas 379-275.

On the other side of this match-up TCU, with 16 starters back from a team that went 4-8 last year, was hoping to rebound into a top-three finish in the Big 12 this season. So far the Frogs are 4-1 SU, 5-0 ATS, and 1-1 in the Big 12.

TCU opened with a 48-14 win over Samford, then beat Minnesota 30-7, then shut out SMU 56-0. The Frogs then opened Big 12 play with a 37-33 victory over Oklahoma, using two defensive touchdowns to pull the upset as four-point home dogs. But last week, in a result that might come back to haunt them, the Frogs blew a 21-point fourth-quarter lead and lost at Baylor 61-58.

TCU scored on a kickoff return and an interception return last week to take a 58-37 lead with just under 12 minutes to go, but couldn't hang on, eventually losing on a field goal on the final play of the game.

The Frogs got outgained by the Bears 782-485.

 

Cowboys-Frogs Recent History
Oklahoma State is 2-0 both SU and ATS against the Frogs since TCU joined the Big 12. The Cowboys beat the Frogs two years ago 36-14, covering as six-point favorites, then topped TCU in a sloppy contest last year 24-10, covering at -7. Both those games were played in Stillwater.

Last year OSU used a 95-yard punt return for a score to take a 17-0 lead into halftime. TCU got within 17-10 midway through the fourth quarter, but could get no closer.

The Cowboys outgained the Frogs that day 415-325, even though TCU won time-of-possession by a 33-27 margin.

 

Cowboys-Frogs Betting Trends
Oklahoma State is 3-1 ATS in its last four games as a road dog.

TCU is 3-6 ATS in its last nine games as home chalk.

These teams are a combined 8-3 on the totals this season.

 

Injury Update
Oklahoma State is without quarterback JW Walsh, who suffered a broken foot in the win over Missouri State. In his place junior Daxx Garman has completed 58 percent of his passes, compiling a 10/5 TD/INT ratio.

On the other side of the field TCU quarterback Trevone Boykin, who's accounted for 14 touchdowns this season, hurt his wrist last week, and may or may not have had surgery, but reports indicate he'll play Saturday.

 

Cowboys-Frogs Free Pick
Oklahoma State has done a nice job so far, playing above expectations, fighting through the change at quarterback, but the schedule gets tougher from here on out, starting Saturday. TCU, meanwhile, has shown it can beat Oklahoma and should have beaten Baylor. So in hoping the Frogs can put last week behind them we'll give the points with the home favorite for our our free college football pick on this bout.

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