Bet Mississippi State ATS Over Vanderbilt for Week 13 NCAAF

Kevin Stott

Thursday, November 20, 2014 1:45 PM GMT

Mississippi State’s dream season and national championship hopes may have come to an end with its loss to Alabama, but the Bulldogs are still in the hunt and should cover the high point spread odds at Home against Vandy.

Odds Overview
Vanderbilt at #4 Mississippi State: (Mississippi State -30½, 52, Pinnacle), Sunday 00:30 (Saturday, SEC Network, 7:30 p.m. ET/4:30 p.m. PT): Mississippi State (9-1 SU, 6-4 ATS, 5-1 SEC) deserves major respect for the kind of season it has had and few teams in the history of college football history could ever expect to go into Tuscaloosa and beat Alabama, let alone a squad of this season’s caliber. And the then top-ranked Bulldogs gave the then-ranked #5 Crimson Tide a run for their money in a 25-20 loss and Mississippi State rallied to make a game of it after trailing 19-3 at halftime. Here at home at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field in Starkville (if we’re being formal), the now #4 (AP) Bulldogs host Vanderbilt (3-7 SU, 5-5 ATS, 0-6 SEC) in an SEC Conference meeting with the Commodores representing the East Division and Mississippi State proudly representing the West Division, where they sit in second place behind Alabama in the toughest division in college football. Of course.

College football odds opened Mississippi State prohibitive 29½-point Favorites (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook), but by Wednesday afternoon, that number had already been bet up to 30½ in most sports books, offshores and European sports books. The Total Points in the game has been set at 52 (Ladbrokes) with the Mississippi State Total Team Points at 41½ and the Vanderbilt Total Team Points set at a baby-like 10½ (Paddy Power). The only prop to be seen at press time: Points Odd/Even had Even priced at -137 and Odd at +105 (BetVictor). Good luck with that one. You’re on your own.

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Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt is being led by its fourth QB of the season, redshirt freshman Johnny McCrary (61 completions, 805 yards, 9 TDs) and the Commodores are coming off a 34-10 loss to Florida at Home in Nashville last Saturday where the Commodores actually jumped out to a 7-0 lead before being chomped by the Gators like y’all knew they would. Vanderbilt—which started this season off like an absolute train wreck—committed 4 TOs and was an anemic 4-16 on 3rd Down against Florida, and, up against Mississippi State on the road, those kind of numbers may result in a 50-10-type biting by the Bulldogs. RB Ralph Webb (185 rushes, 838 yards, 3 TDs) and the rest of the Vanderbilt offense will have to be at their very best and the Vanderbilt Total Team Points (10½) speaks volumes about where this game’s final score could potentially end up at. And that’s what all this jazz is always all about...the final score.

The Commodores rank 107th in Passing and an even-worse 113th Rushing while the Defense ranks a woe-is-me 119th against the Pass and 102nd against the Rush and allow an average of 32.4 ppg. (It would be important at this point in time to note there are only 124 teams in FBS 1-A College Football.) So, in Starkville against a team actually still in the national championship picture with an electric QB (Dak Prescott) and something still to prove, Vanderbilt could very well allow more than 50 points.

 

Mississippi State
When considering your college football picks for this matchup keep in mind that Mississippi State will definitely have some mad in them come game time Saturday night and will also want to reward the home Starkville crowd for its support this season while also being given much-deserved accolades the team deserves for the incredible year it’s had to date. And that kind of confidence and electricity and mutual respect will definitely translate into some extra points from the host Bulldogs—almost Appreciation Points if you will—and the bulk of those may just come in the first half. And Vanderbilt is the perfect opponent to pound on here and Mississippi State can score points (37.8 ppg), where it ranks #15 in the nation, and can also stop points from being scored (allow 20.2 ppg), where the Bulldogs rank a very respectable 17th overall. And that’s really saying something for  team which has already played LSU, Texas A&M, Auburn, Arkansas and aforementioned Alabama—all in rugged SEC West Divisional play.

The Bulldogs are led by versatile QB Dak Prescott (173 completions, 2,521 yards, 20 TDs) on offense and this team can beat you by land or by air with RB Josh Robinson (15 rushes, 1,081 yards, 11 TDs) and WR De’Runnya Wilson (30 receptions, 458 yards, 6 TDs, 15.3 ypc). And with Prescott (861 yards Rushing) being able to tuck the ball in and run when he wants, he really opens up the Mississippi State offense, which currently ranks 36th nationally Passing and 20th Rushing.

 

Best Betting Approaches
Mississippi State was ranked #1 at this time last week, and has lost just once, to a team that may eventually win the national championship. But with the way the new FCS Playoff system is set up, the Bulldogs are actually still in the mix and will be motivated to pound Vanderbilt just in case it’s that little thing that happens here that maybe makes the difference of them potentially being the fourth team in the first-ever NCAAF Final Four. Toss in the the anger from losing its first game last weekend, all this talent and fact that it’s the Home finale with an expected packed Saturday night crowd with some decent weather—Partly Cloudy with a High temperature of 61° and 0% chance of Precipitation—and this has the makings of a big blowout and the Bulldogs may very well notch their second shutout of the season.

Mississippi State is 12-8 ATS as Home Favorites the L4+ seasons, but just 3-3 ATS in that role this season. But the relevant trend(s) to apply to this particular game make a case for a bet on the home Bulldogs: Mississippi State is 7-1 ATS L8 against Vanderbilt and a sparkly 4-0 ATS L4 against the Commodores here at Home at Davis Wade Stadium. Vanderbilt lost to #8 Ole Miss, 41-3 in Nashville in Week 2, and although the Commodores have improved a little and found a serviceable QB in McCrary, this is still a mismatch and could very well be 35-3 at halftime.

College Footall Pick: Mississippi State -30½  at Pinnacle