Bet Michigan to Cover Over Indiana for Week 10 NCAAF Picks

Darin Zank

Thursday, October 30, 2014 4:44 PM GMT

Michigan totally owns the football rivalry with Indiana, winning 18 straight meetings, but the Hoosiers have covered the spread two of the last three. Indiana goes looking for a much-needed upset when the teams meet Saturday afternoon for Homecoming at the Big House.

 

Hoosiers-Wolverines Betting Odds
Most college football odds we checked with opened Michigan at -8 or -9 over Indiana, with a total of 53 or 54. But as of Thursday morning most shops had dropped the Wolverines to -7, some even to -6.5.

Those who think the Hoosiers might win this game outright could get a price of +240 on the moneyline at The Greek.

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Hoosiers-Wolverines: The Situation
Michigan went off this season getting 10/1 to win the Big Ten, with a wins OVER/UNDER of 7.5. But at 3-5 SU (3-5 ATS) and 1-3 in conference play the Wolverines have already guaranteed they will not win the Big Ten and will not play OVER their win total.

Michigan started 2-1 this season, with wins over Appalachian State and Miami-Ohio and that 31-0 loss at Notre Dame. The Wolverines then lost three in a row, including home games against Utah and Minnesota. Michigan then beat Penn State 18-13 but last week lost at Michigan State 35-11.

The Wolverines only trailed the Spartans 14-3 into the third quarter, but an interception return for a score and a long MSU touchdown pass broke the game open. Michigan got outgained by the Spartans 446-186 and outrushed 219-61. So the Wolverines have been outgained in three of their four Big Ten contests.

Indiana began this season as a 100/1 shot to win the Big Ten, with a wins total of 5.5. At 3-4 SU (2-5 ATS) the Hoosiers will not win the Big Ten, but with three wins in their last five games they would play OVER their win total and become bowl-eligible for the first time since 2007.

IU began this season 3-2, with a loss at Bowling Green, an upset victory at Missouri and a Big Ten home defeat to Maryland. Three weeks ago the Hoosiers lost at Iowa 45-29, losing starting QB Nate Sudfeld in the process, and two weeks ago they lost at home to Michigan State 56-17.

Indiana had last week off.

The Hoosiers fell behind Iowa 21-0, but in the end outgained the Hawkeyes 432-426 and outrushed them 316-207. The following week Indiana led the Spartans 17-14 in the second quarter, but got outscored from there 42-0. The Hoosiers got outgained by Michigan State by a lopsided 662-224 margin.

 

Hoosiers-Wolverines Recent History
Michigan has beaten Indiana 18 times in a row, 33 of the last 34 meetings, and 17 times in a row in Ann Arbor. The last time the Hoosiers won at Michigan was 1967, which just happens to be the last time Indiana played in the Rose Bowl.

Last year the Wolverines outgunned the Hoosiers at the Big House 63-47, covering the spread as eight-point favorites. Michigan led by two touchdowns early in that game, but Indiana would not go away, pulling to within 49-47 with 12 minutes to go. But the Wolverines scored the last two touchdowns of the game.

Michigan outgained the Hoosiers 751-572 (!), and won time-of-possession by a 39/21 margin.

That game went OVER its total of 67 on an Indiana field goal with six minutes to go in the third quarter.

 

Hoosiers-Wolverines Betting Trends
The last three games in this series have played OVER the totals, averaging 85 total points.

 

Injury Update
Indiana is without QB Nate Sudfeld, who injured a shoulder a month ago. In his place freshman QB Zander Diamont completed five of 11 passes against Michigan State for a total of 11 yards. Yikes.

Meanwhile, Michigan is without leading rusher Derrick Green (broken collarbone).

 

Hoosiers-Wolverines Free Pick
With RB Tevin Coleman toting the load Indiana probably owns an edge on offense, even with its problems at quarterback. But Michigan owns an advantage on defense, which ranks 14th in the country overall, and 16th vs. the run. Given the choice, we go with the better defense almost all the time for our college football picks.

Free College Football Pick: Wolverines -6.5 at Pinnacle