Bet Michigan -2.0 over Northwestern for Week 10 NCAAF Picks

Ross Benjamin

Monday, November 3, 2014 8:48 PM GMT

Ross Benjamin is a terrific 24-9 (72.7%) with his college football free picks this season at Sportsbook Review. Find out what he has to say about this upcoming match between Michigan and Northwestern. 

Battle of Big 10 Disappointing Teams
The Northwestern Wildcats will play host to the Michigan Wolverines on Saturday at Ryan Field in Evanston, Illinois with the opening kickoff slated for 3:30 PM ET. According to the College Football odds, Michigan is a 2.0 point favorite, and there was no total posted at the time of this writing. Michigan has won each of the last 3 meetings between these teams, and 2 of the 3-games went over the total. The Wolverines have won each of their last 5-trips to Evanston.

 

Coming off a Stout Defensive Performance
Michigan is coming off a decisive 34-10 home win over Indiana, and covered easily as a 7.5-point favorite. The Wolverines defense was superb, holding the Hoosiers to just 191-yards of total offense, including a mere 24-yards passing. The defensive unit has been stellar for the better part of the season, holding opponents to 21.7 points, and 305-yards per game. They’ve been especially stout versus the run, allowing 116-yards per game, and just 3-.1 yards per rushing attempt. The contest versus Indiana also marked the 1st time in 9-games they were a plus differential in turnovers (+1). As a matter of fact, if you’re attempting to pinpoint a major contributor to Michigan’s 4-5 record this season, all you have to look at is their -13 turnover differential on the year.

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Wildcats have been Tame
Northwestern had high expectations entering this season. They were returning 17-starters from a team that went 5-7 a season ago, and saw 5 of those 7-losses come by 10-points or less. However, things have gone a bit sideways in 2014, and they enter this contest at 3-5 on the year. They were able to upset a very good Wisconsin team at home 20-14, but unfortunately since then have gone 0-3 SU&ATS, and lost those contests by an average of 23.0 points per game. The low point of the season came in a 48-7 loss last week as a 3.0 point underdog at Iowa. They were held to only 179-yards of total offense in that loss, and that was 111 less than their previous season low. Northwestern has gone a dismal 1-3 at home this season versus FBS opponents.

 

Final Analysis
As I alluded to earlier, the Wolverines are coming off a momentum building 34-10 win. Northwestern has allowed 38-points or more in each of their previous 2-games. This sets up a solid betting system that I will use to my advantage when making my College Football pick this week. Any road team (Michigan) that held their previous opponent to 14-points or less, versus an opponent which has allowed 31-points or more in each of their previous 2-games, has gone 69-30 ATS, (69.7%) during the past 5-seasons.

Free College Football Pick: Michigan -2.0 over Northwestern at BookMaker