Bet Kansas Plus the Points vs. Baylor for College Football Picks

Darin Zank

Wednesday, October 29, 2014 4:27 PM GMT

Since Coach Briles took over at Baylor the Bears are 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS against Kansas, blowing out the Jayhawks three times. Baylor backers hope for more of the same when the Bears host Kansas for Homecoming in Waco Saturday afternoon.

Jayhawks-Bears Betting Odds
Most college football odds opened Baylor at -35 over Kansas, with a total of 61. As of midweek most shops had bumped the Bears to -36, while the total held steady.

5Dimes, for whatever reason, was offering the Jayhawks at a price of +10000 (100/1) on its college football moneyline.

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Jayhawks-Bears: The Situation
Baylor went off this season getting around 3/1 to win the Big 12 title, with a wins OVER/UNDER of 9.5. With their 6-1 start (4-2-1 ATS), 3-1 in conference play, the Bears are right in the running for that Big 12 championship, and need four wins in their last five games to play OVER their total.

Baylor opened this year by beating SMU, Northwestern State and Buffalo by an average score of 59-9. The Bears then began their Big 12 slate with a 49-28 win at Iowa State, a 28-7 decision over Texas and a 61-58 come-from-behind victory over TCU. But perhaps gassed from having to rally from 21 points down in the fourth quarter against the Horned Frogs, Baylor then went to West Virginia and lost 41-27.

The Bears then had last week off.

Baylor, as an eight-point road favorite, led the Mountaineers by a touchdown early, fell behind, forged a 27-27 third-quarter tie but then lost the fourth quarter 14-0. The Bears got outgained by West Virginia 456-318, and committed 18 penalties for over 200 yards!

At 3-1 in conference play BU sits in third place in the Big 12, one game behind first-place Kansas State. Looking ahead, Baylor hosts the Wildcats on the last weekend of the regular season.

On the other side of this match-up Kansas returned 17 starters for its third season under Coach Weis, so the Jayhawks were hoping for improvement, perhaps in the way of a conference victory or two. Instead, Kansas fired Weis after four games, and now floats along facing an uncertain future. Again.

KU opened 2-1, with a win over Southeast Missouri State, a loss at Duke and a win over Central Michigan. The Jayhawks then opened Big 12 play with a 23-0 loss to Texas. They then fired Weis.

Since then Kansas lost at West Virginia 33-14, but covered as a 27-point dog; lost at home to Oklahoma State 27-20, but covered as a 19-point home dog; and lost at Texas Tech 34-21, just missing the cover as a 12-point underdog.

The Jayhawks also had last week off.

Kansas trailed the Red Raiders two weeks ago 17-0 early, got within 27-21 going into the fourth quarter, but gave up an insurance score and could get no closer.

The Jayhawks got outgained by Texas Tech 507-363 and outrushed 219-128.

Junior QB Michael Cummings, making his second start of the season for Kansas, hit on 20 of 32 passes for 235 yards and two scores, throwing one interception, and ran for another score.

 

Jayhawks-Bears Recent History
Baylor owns the recent series with Kansas, winning the last four meetings by an average score of 47-16. Last year the Bears bounded out to a 38-0 halftime lead in Lawrence, on their way to a 59-14 victory. Baylor outgained the Jayhawks 743-308, covering the spread as a 34-point road favorite.

That game played OVER its total of 66 when Bears RB Shock Linwood broke loose for a 68-yard touchdown run with six minutes to go in the game.

 

Jayhawks-Bears Betting Trends
Baylor is 4-2-1 ATS this season, and 30-14-1 ATS over the last three-plus seasons.

Kansas is 0-27 SU, 8-19 ATS in its last 27 road games.

 

Jayhawks-Bears Free Pick
Baylor is going to win this game, but by how much? The Bears just lost to West Virginia, while Kansas managed to stay within 19 points of the Mountaineers a few weeks ago. The Jayhawks haven't been all that terrible over their last three games or so, while Baylor just doesn't look like the monster it was last year. So we'll take Kansas and the points for our free college football pick in this spot.

Free College Football Pick: Kansas +36 at Bet365