Bet Kansas +28 Over TCU for College Football Picks

Tuesday, November 11, 2014 9:23 PM UTC

Tuesday, Nov. 11, 2014 9:23 PM UTC

TCU is not only in running for the Big 12 title and perhaps a spot in the national championship playoff, but it's also been the best team in college football to bet on this year, going 8-1 ATS. The Horned Frogs are four-touchdown favorites for their next gig, against Kansas Saturday afternoon in Lawrence.

Frogs-'Hawks Betting Odds
Most College Football Betting Odds we sampled opened TCU at around -26 over Kansas, then had to bump the Frogs to -28. Those who believe in minor miracles could bet the Jayhawks to win this game outright getting +3000 (30/1) on the moneyline at 5Dimes.

Frogs-'Hawks: The Situation
TCU went off this season getting around 15/1 to win the Big 12, with a wins OVER/UNDER of eight. At 8-1 overall, 5-1 in conference play the Frogs are tied for first place in the Big 12, and need one win in their last three games to play OVER their total.

TCU started 4-0 this season, including a 37-33 upset of Oklahoma. The Frogs then led Baylor by three touchdowns in the fourth quarter, but pissed that lead away and lost 61-58 on a Bears field goal at the buzzer. But since then TCU has won four more in a row, beating Oklahoma State 42-9, Texas Tech 82-27, West Virginia 31-30 and, last week, Kansas State 41-20.

The Frogs outgained the Wildcats last week 553-410 and outrushed them 334-34, on their way to covering as seven-point home chalk.

So since blowing that game against Baylor a month ago TCU is 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS, and has outgained those last four foes by an average of 233 yards per game.

On the underdog side of this match-up, Kansas went off this season as a 100/1 shot to win the Big 12, wins a wins O/U of 3.5. At 3-6 SU, 4-5 ATS and 1-5 in conference play the Jayhawks will not win the Big 12, but they need just one more victory in their last three games – albeit against either TCU, Oklahoma or Kansas State – to play OVER their total.

Kansas started this season 2-1, then lost to Texas and, somewhat surprisingly, fired head coach Charlie Weis. The Jayhawks then lost four more in a row, but went 2-2 ATS in the process. And last week Kansas put an end to its losing streak with a 34-14 victory over Iowa State, winning outright as two-point home dogs.

The Jayhawks grabbed an early 24-0 lead over the Cyclones, saw that lead trimmed to 24-14, then iced the victory by scoring the last 10 points of the game. Kansas outgained ISU 514-373 and outrushed them 228-98.


Frogs-'Hawks Recent History
TCU has beaten Kansas each of the last two seasons, by scores of 20-6 and 27-17. But the Jayhawks covered the spread in both those games, first as dogs of +18 points, and last year at +24.

The Frogs outgained Kansas last year 380-198 and rushed for 207 yards, but turned the ball over five times and had an interception returned for a touchdown. That's why TCU didn't cover the spread.


Frogs-'Hawks Betting Trends
TCU is 6-3 on the totals this season, as Frogs games have averaged 69 points.

Kansas is 2-7 on the totals, as Jayhawks games have averaged 48 points.

Kansas is also just 4-45 SU, 19-30 in its last 49 Big 12 games.


Frogs-'Hawks Free Pick
TCU is still playing for some big stakes, while Kansas is playing for pride. But we wonder if the Frogs might experience a bit of a letdown, after a big win at home last week over K-State. And the Jayhawks haven’t been as terrible as of late as a first glance might indicate. So while the possibility of an upset in this spot seems very slim, we like the home dog for our Free NCAA Football Pick, plus the points.

Free College Football Pick: Kansas +28 at 5Dimes


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