Bet on Home Team for Troy vs. Georgia Southern NCAAF Picks

David Lawrence

Monday, October 27, 2014 1:45 PM GMT

Monday, Oct. 27, 2014 1:45 PM GMT

Sun Belt's new arrival Georgia Southern is on top of the College Football betting odds for Thursday's matchup vs. the Troy Trojans, who are sinking to the bottom of the conference. 

The Troy Trojans Will Win Because…
They are trying to send their retiring coach out in style. Larry Blakeney has been coaching at Troy since 1991. He’s led the small school in the state of Alabama to multiple bowl appearances and wins after leading it through Division I-AA for the first decade of his stay at Troy. There’s a feeling of profound loyalty to Blakeney for all he’s done at Troy. His players are not going to quit on the season. They’re still competing well; they just don’t have the highly explosive offensive players who can turn a game around in an instant. Yet, you’re going to see the Trojans play hard on defense for all 60 minutes.

Despite playing its most recent game on short rest (five days instead of six), Troy’s defense went from giving up 53 points to Appalachian State on Oct. 18 to giving up only 27 against South Alabama on Oct. 24. If Troy continues to make the improvements it is capable of on defense, the Trojans will certainly cover what is a very large point spread on College Football odds. Georgia Southern, as well as it has played, might be somewhat nervous as it tries to hold onto the Sun Belt lead. The Eagles are not used to being the leader in a Football Bowl Subdivision conference. The newness of the experience could get to them, and a national television appearance might not be the best thing for their nerves.

 

The Georgia Southern Eagles Will Win Because…
They are going up against a team that simply struggles to perform basic tasks. Troy rates 82nd in the country in passing yards, 99th in rushing yards, 118th in points scored, and 120th in points allowed. The Trojans are weak at just about every position and have suffered five of their seven losses by at least 14 points. When Troy loses, it usually loses by a lot. A team that’s 1-7 on the season might want to play for its coach, but desire means little when it’s not backed up by talent. This is the spot the Trojans inhabit right now. That’s just the reality for them.

Georgia Southern is a pretty good team in its own right. The Eagles are seventh in the nation in scoring offense. They are also first in the country in rushing yards, with just over 400 of them per game. Willie Fritz is a rising star in the coaching business, and he is giving Georgia Southern an advantage with his expertise and attention to detail. While Troy’s coaching situation is one of decay and decline, Georgia Southern has a coach on the rise. This difference should not be overlooked.

What should also not be overlooked is that Troy will be playing on short rest for the second straight game. The Trojans played on Oct. 18, then Oct. 24 vs. Georgia State. This game will be on Oct. 30. Tiredness should catch up with Troy here.

 

Outlook
If Troy is being asked to play another game without a full complement of rest, Georgia Southern’s ability to run the ball should be exactly the thing that can run the Trojans ragged. This is just a complete mismatch by all acounts and should end up as a college football betting blowout. Take Georgia Southern here for a solid Week 10 College Football pick.

Free College Football Pick: Georgia Southern at BookMaker 

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