Bet Home Dog UNLV +9.5 Over Nevada for Week 14 College Football

Kevin Stott

Wednesday, November 26, 2014 2:38 PM GMT

Wednesday, Nov. 26, 2014 2:38 PM GMT

Nevada heads south to Las Vegas to gamble with UNLV in this MWC West Division battle. At Home and with nothing to lose, are the Rebels getting 10 in some places the bet here on Saturday night?

Odds Overview
UNLV vs. Nevada: (Nevada -9½, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook), Sunday 03:30 (ESPNU/Watch ESPN, 10:30 p.m. ET/7:30 p.m. PT): Sam Boyd Stadium here in Sin City is the site of The Battle for Nevada and the semi-prestigious Fremont Cannon, the annual Silver State throwdown between Nevada (6-5 SU, 6-5 ATS, 3-4 MWC) and UNLV (2-10 SU, 5-7 ATS, 1-6 MWC) late Saturday night. The point spread sees Nevada as -9½ Favorites in most places (Tuesday night) but there are 10’s showing locally at Mirage and Station Casinos. The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook’s 2014 Games of the Year Odds installed visiting Nevada as 11½-point Favorites this summer for this game, so it seems the Wolf Pack have maybe disappointed just a little bit in the eyes of the oddsmakers? Who knows. The Money Line (Winner) college football odds in this game see the mean blue visitors from the North, Nevada, as large -350 Favorites with host and Underdog UNLV priced at +298 at Pinnacle. The Total Points is set at 62 (bet365).

 

Nevada Wolf Pack
Nevada is led by dynamic QB Cody Fajardo (270 completions, 2,238 yards, 15 TDs) who is the Wolf Pack’s leading rusher (151 rushes, 854 yards, 12 TDs) and along with RB Don Jackson (800 rushing yards, 8 TDs), help give Nevada the 38th best Rushing attack in the nation (197.6 ypg). The Wolf Pack are 82nd in Passing (211.6 ypg) and Fajardo and Nevada have about twice as many nice targets as UNLV does with Jerico Richardson (52 receptions, 614 yards, 2 TDs), Hasaan Henderson (45 receptions, 579 yards, 4 TDs), Richy Turner (57 receptions, 523 yards, 3 TDs) and Jarred Gipson (32 receptions, 282 yards, 4 TDs).

The Wolf Pack (8-1 SU L9 vs. UNLV, lost last season) are 59th in Points scored per game (29.7 ppg), but Nevada’s defense almost gives up as many points as the offense scores (28.3) and ranks 78th in the country heading into this contest on Saturday night.

Last year when these two teams met up north in Reno, UNLV defeated and upset Nevada, 27-22 as 6½-Point Favorites—ending a 8-season losing skid to their rivals—so you can bet Nevada has had this game circled on their calendar—like they do every year it’s the only rivalry in the state Herman—and would like a little revenge and to get that stupid cannon back and paint it navy blue. Overall, Nevada leads this Battle for Nevada and the Fremont Cannon, 23-16.

 

UNLV Rebels
UNLV (0-5 L5) is not usually the type of team bettors like to get behind but there are always spots and situations on the schedule in a given season where you can even back bad teams and this may just be one of those spots at Home with the Rebels getting almost double-digits and against an opponent that will be content to just win this rivalry game and take the Fremont Cannon back to Reno—The Biggest Little City in the World, folks. The Rebels rank just 109th in the nation Rushing (122.8 ypg) but are #39 Passing (265.5 ypg) behind QB Blake Decker (210 completions, 2,715 yards, 13 TDs/15 INTs) who has some nice receivers in Devonte Boyd (60 receptions, 912 yards, 3 TDs, 15.2 ypc) and Devonte Davis (33 receptions, 596 yards, 3 TDs, 18.1 ypc). And despite the low rushing totals and commitment to a ground game, UNLV RBs Keith Whitley (115 rushes, 491 yards, 2 TDs) and Shaquille Murray-Lawrence (96 yards, 417 yards, 8 TDs) are dependable enough.

Last Saturday night, far, far away from us all and late, late at night, the Rebels actually got jobbed in Hawai’i when the Warriors scored on a pass with :01 left on the clock after a previous play by Hawai’i appeared to take a little more than the time left on the clock. (The MWC reviewed the situation and did not release an opinion, so, no soup for you UNLV.) A little home-cooking in the islands, bruh. So expect UNLV (#118 in Points against, 37.6 ppg) to be a little mad and who better to try to take your freaking frustrations out on other than your hated in-state rivals? Exactly. Pass the Grey Poupon, monsieur we may have a dilly-dally of a game here but then again we’re talking about UNLV-Nevada so it’s probably best to simmer down just a notch. Anyway, getting 9½ in this probably high-scoring affair seems safer than laying so much lumber with a beige Road team and with UNLV (1-4 ATS L5 at Home) scoring 35, 23, 21, 28, 20 and 30 in its L6, the thought is that the Rebels should hopefully pop around 26 up on the scoreboard at Sam Boyd meaning Nevada would have to score 36 or more to cover the current spread. But this comes with some apprehension and should be the smallest-sized bet if even contemplated.

 

Best Betting Approaches and Trends
Maybe a little surprisingly for a resident living in Las Vegas and following the local college football team, UNLV is 3-1 ATS L4 against Nevada and 5-2 ATS L7 here at Home in Las Vegas, so, another reason besides the site, the points and Nevada only caring about the win here make a case for backing the Underdogs.

One seemingly strong trend here would be the Under, as it’s 14-3 in the L13 Nevada games and 6-2 in the L8 Wolf Pack Road tilts. But the Over is 4-1 in the L5 in this series in Las Vegas and 4-2 in the L6 overall meetings, so, the final score could end up being really close to the posted Total and is probably best left alone though if I had to lean—and I hate to lean—I’d lean Over because of the situation. Both teams can let their proverbial hair down (it’s UNLV’s last game of the season) and just get into a Wild West shootout on the TurfTech playing surface in the  somewhat decent forecasted weather on Saturday evening (Clear, Low 46°). But obviously, there are much better games to bet on and watch this coming holiday weekend. Whatever you choose to do on your college football picks, good luck.

College Football Pick: UNLV +9½ at 5Dimes

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