Bet Georgia ATS Cover Over Florida for College Football Picks

Ross Benjamin

Tuesday, October 28, 2014 1:06 PM GMT

Our capper has gone 24-7 this season with his college football picks at Sportsbook Review. He provides us with a NCAA football betting preview article on the Florida/Georgia game which includes a free pick.

Epic SEC Annual Rivalry
The #9 rated Georgia Bulldogs take on the Florida Gators on Saturday at Everbank Field in Jacksonville, Florida, and the opening kickoff is slated for 3:30 PM ET. This annual rivalry has been notoriously labeled as “The World’s Largest Cocktail Party” because of the festive type atmosphere created by both fan bases at a neutral site. According to the college football odds at Heritage, Georgia is a 13.0 point favorite, and there was no total posted at the time of this writing. Georgia has defeated Florida in each of the past 3-seasons, and all of those games stayed under the total. The last 4-meetings between these teams have been decided by 8-points or less.

 

Muschamp on the Hot Seat
This game may be a tipping point for the Gators head coach Will Muschamp. Since taking over in Gainesville, the Gators are just 25-19 under their highly scrutinized head coach, and just 3-3 heading into the Georgia game. Additionally, Florida has gone just 15-14 in SEC play under Muschamp. At some schools that would be an acceptable record, but it’s considered below standards at Florida. In all fairness to Muschamp, he succeeded a highly successful coach in Urban Meyer who went 65-15 in his 6-years as the head man in Gainesville, and won 2 national championships. Prior to Meyer it was the former Florida Gator Heisman Trophy winner Steve Spurrier who elevated the football program back to national prominence, and also won a national championship under his watch.

 

Gators come off an Embarrassing Performance
Just when you think it couldn’t get any worse for the Florida Gators, the nightmare continued in a 42-13 defeat at home in their previous game at the hands of the Missouri Tigers. Although Missouri was held to 119-yards of total offense, they managed to put up 42-points thanks in large part to 6 Florida turnovers. Florida started the season by winning their first 2-games, since then they’ve dropped 3 of the last 4, and the only win during that sequence was a narrow 10-9 victory at Tennessee. The Gators were a +8 in turnover differential through their first 4-games, and in their last 2-games which both resulted in losses, they were a -8 in that department. The Gators have seen 5 of their 6-games this season go over the total.

 

Georgia Offense Clicking on all Cylinders
The Georgia Bulldogs have scored 34-points or more in each of their first 7-games. They’re averaging 43.4 points and 437.1 yards per game offensively. Barring something unforeseen, the Bulldogs will be favorites in all 5 of their remaining regular season games. They currently lead the SEC East Division, and control their own destiny in those regards. They’re in prime position to play in the SEC Championship Game in Atlanta against one of the powers from the SEC West, which has 4 teams ranked among the top 7 in the country. The moral to the story, Georgia has a very realistic chance of being part of the 4-team college football playoff that will determine this season’s national champion.

 

Final Analysis
The strength of the Gators is their defense, and they’ll be under enormous pressure all day by an explosive Georgia offense. The Florida defense has held their last 3-opponents Tennessee, LSU, and Missouri to an average of only 219.0 yards per game.

Georgia is an outstanding +13 in turnover differential this season. They were a +9 in their last 2-games at Missouri (34-0) and Arkansas (45-32). They didn’t turn the ball over in 4 of their 7-games this season, and only turned the ball over more than once on just a single occasion.

The Gators offense isn’t explosive or efficient enough to take the pressure off their stellar defensive unit. Granted this is a rivalry game, and you can sometimes toss the records out the window in such cases. However, the Bulldogs are the far superior team, and they don’t beat themselves. My early lean for my college football picks goes the way of the favorite.

College Football Pick: Georgia -13.0 over Florida at 5Dimes

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