Bet Georgia -10.5 vs. Kentucky for Week 11 NCAAF Pick

Monday, November 3, 2014 3:37 PM UTC

Monday, Nov. 3, 2014 3:37 PM UTC

Before placing your Week 11 College Football pick, understand that Georgia owns the rivalry with Kentucky, winning 20 of the last 23 meetings, including six of the last seven.

<p style="text-align:center"> <style type="text/css"><!--td {border: 1px solid #ccc;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}--> </style> <span style="font-size:13px;font-family:arial,sans,sans-serif;color:#000000;text-align:left"><iframe width="560" height="330" src="" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe></span></p> <p><strong>'Dawgs-'Cats Betting Odds</strong><br /> In the very early betting most books opened Georgia as a 12-point road favorite on <a href="" target="_blank" title="College Football odds">College Football odds</a> for Saturday's game, but quickly dropped the Bulldogs to -11. Those who think Kentucky has a chance to win this one outright could get a price of +344 on the moneyline at Pinnacle.</p> <p> </p> <p><strong>'Dawgs vs. 'Cats: The Situation</strong><br /> <a href="" target="_blank" title="Revisit our last SEC Future Odds report">Georgia went off at odds of about 6/1 to win the SEC this season</a>, with a wins OVER/UNDER of 9.5. At 4-2 in conference play and 6-2 overall the Bulldogs are only a game behind first-place Missouri in the SEC East, and they own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Tigers. But they also  need to win their last four games to play OVER their total.</p> <p>UGA, with a new starting quarterback after the departure of Aaron Murray, opened this season with a nice win over Clemson, but then began SEC play with a tough loss at South Carolina. The Bulldogs then reeled off five wins in a row, beating Troy 66-0, Tennessee 35-32, Vandy 44-17, Missouri 34-0 and Arkansas 45-32 in a game that wasn't that close.</p> <p>Last week, though, Georgia got bit by underdog Florida, losing the big cocktail game outright 38-20 as an 11-point favorite.</p> <p>The Bulldogs had outrushed every opponent this year, until they got gouged for 418 yards on the ground by the Gators last week.</p> <p>On the other side of this match-up Kentucky began this season getting upwards of 200/1 to win the SEC, with a wins OVER/UNDER of 4.5. At 2-4 in conference play the Wildcats won't win the SEC, but at 5-4 overall they've already played OVER their wins total.</p> <p>UK opened this season with wins over Tennessee-Martin and Ohio, then began SEC play with a tough 36-30 overtime loss at Florida. The Wildcats then ended a 17-game conference losing streak with a 17-7 victory over Vandy, then backed that up with a 45-38 win over South Carolina. They then flexed a little non-conference muscle with a 48-14 win over Louisiana-Monroe to get to 5-1 and within one victory of bowl-eligibility. But the schedule got a little tougher, and Kentucky has lost its last three games; 41-3 at LSU, 45-31 to top-ranked Mississippi State and, last week, 20-10 at Missouri.</p> <p>The Wildcats whiffed on the spread at Baton Rouge as 11-point dogs, pushed at +14 against MSU, and came up empty as seven-point dogs against Mizzou.</p> <p>Kentucky has been outgained and outrushed each of its last three games.</p> <p>So in four games versus common opponents this season (Florida, Vandy, South Carolina and Missouri) the Bulldogs are 2-2 SU, just 1-3 ATS, while the Wildcats are 2-2 both SU and ATS.</p> <p> </p> <p><strong>'Dawgs-'Cats Recent History</strong><br /> Georgia has won the last four games in this series by an average score of 38-20. Last year the Bulldogs bounced out to a 21-point first-quarter lead and never looked back on their way to a 59-17 victory in Athens. Georgia outgained Kentucky 602-211 and covered as a 26-point favorite.</p> <p>But over the last six meetings the Wildcats have covered as dogs of 25, 30, 10 and 13 points.</p> <p> </p> <p><strong>Personnel Update</strong><br /> <a href="" target="_blank" title="We had to update our Heisman Trophy picks after Gurley got suspended">Georgia RB Todd Gurley will sit out one more game on NCAA suspension</a>. In his place freshman Nick Chubb has run for 143, 202 and 156 yards over the last three games.</p> <p> </p> <p><strong>'Dawgs-'Cats Betting Trends</strong><br /> Before making your <a href="" target="_blank" title="College Football Pick">College Football pick</a> on this matchup, keep in mind that these two teams are a combined 12-5 on the totals this season.</p> <p> </p> <p><strong>'Dawgs-'Cats Free Pick</strong><br /> Coach Stoops might have this Kentucky program headed in the right direction, but the 'Cats have struggled against the tougher schedule as of late. They're also only 4-6-1 ATS in their last 11 games as double-digit dogs. Georgia, meanwhile, has the bounce-back factor on its side in this spot, after laying an egg last week against Florida. So we like the visiting team here at the more manageable spread.</p> <p><strong>Free College Football Pick:</strong> Bulldogs -10.5 at <a href=";book=inarticlepinnacle" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Pinnacle Sportsbook">Pinnacle</a></p> <p><iframe allowtransparency="true" border="0" frameborder="no" height="140px" id="iframe-odds-widget-2036869707517426" name="iframe-odds-widget-2036869707517426" scrolling="no" src=";timezone=16&amp;theme=article&amp;line-type=spreadntotals.type=whole-game&amp;odds-type=US&amp;books=19,43,227,1096,999996,93,238,123,139&amp;trackers=1409845611531.xml&amp;event-id=294345" style="width:642px;border:medium none;overflow:hidden"></iframe></p>
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