Bet Georgia -10.5 vs. Kentucky for Week 11 NCAAF Pick

Darin Zank

Monday, November 3, 2014 3:37 PM GMT

Before placing your Week 11 College Football pick, understand that Georgia owns the rivalry with Kentucky, winning 20 of the last 23 meetings, including six of the last seven.

'Dawgs-'Cats Betting Odds
In the very early betting most books opened Georgia as a 12-point road favorite on College Football odds for Saturday's game, but quickly dropped the Bulldogs to -11. Those who think Kentucky has a chance to win this one outright could get a price of +344 on the moneyline at Pinnacle.

 

'Dawgs vs. 'Cats: The Situation
Georgia went off at odds of about 6/1 to win the SEC this season, with a wins OVER/UNDER of 9.5. At 4-2 in conference play and 6-2 overall the Bulldogs are only a game behind first-place Missouri in the SEC East, and they own the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Tigers. But they also  need to win their last four games to play OVER their total.

UGA, with a new starting quarterback after the departure of Aaron Murray, opened this season with a nice win over Clemson, but then began SEC play with a tough loss at South Carolina. The Bulldogs then reeled off five wins in a row, beating Troy 66-0, Tennessee 35-32, Vandy 44-17, Missouri 34-0 and Arkansas 45-32 in a game that wasn't that close.

Last week, though, Georgia got bit by underdog Florida, losing the big cocktail game outright 38-20 as an 11-point favorite.

The Bulldogs had outrushed every opponent this year, until they got gouged for 418 yards on the ground by the Gators last week.

On the other side of this match-up Kentucky began this season getting upwards of 200/1 to win the SEC, with a wins OVER/UNDER of 4.5. At 2-4 in conference play the Wildcats won't win the SEC, but at 5-4 overall they've already played OVER their wins total.

UK opened this season with wins over Tennessee-Martin and Ohio, then began SEC play with a tough 36-30 overtime loss at Florida. The Wildcats then ended a 17-game conference losing streak with a 17-7 victory over Vandy, then backed that up with a 45-38 win over South Carolina. They then flexed a little non-conference muscle with a 48-14 win over Louisiana-Monroe to get to 5-1 and within one victory of bowl-eligibility. But the schedule got a little tougher, and Kentucky has lost its last three games; 41-3 at LSU, 45-31 to top-ranked Mississippi State and, last week, 20-10 at Missouri.

The Wildcats whiffed on the spread at Baton Rouge as 11-point dogs, pushed at +14 against MSU, and came up empty as seven-point dogs against Mizzou.

Kentucky has been outgained and outrushed each of its last three games.

So in four games versus common opponents this season (Florida, Vandy, South Carolina and Missouri) the Bulldogs are 2-2 SU, just 1-3 ATS, while the Wildcats are 2-2 both SU and ATS.

 

'Dawgs-'Cats Recent History
Georgia has won the last four games in this series by an average score of 38-20. Last year the Bulldogs bounced out to a 21-point first-quarter lead and never looked back on their way to a 59-17 victory in Athens. Georgia outgained Kentucky 602-211 and covered as a 26-point favorite.

But over the last six meetings the Wildcats have covered as dogs of 25, 30, 10 and 13 points.

 

Personnel Update
Georgia RB Todd Gurley will sit out one more game on NCAA suspension. In his place freshman Nick Chubb has run for 143, 202 and 156 yards over the last three games.

 

'Dawgs-'Cats Betting Trends
Before making your College Football pick on this matchup, keep in mind that these two teams are a combined 12-5 on the totals this season.

 

'Dawgs-'Cats Free Pick
Coach Stoops might have this Kentucky program headed in the right direction, but the 'Cats have struggled against the tougher schedule as of late. They're also only 4-6-1 ATS in their last 11 games as double-digit dogs. Georgia, meanwhile, has the bounce-back factor on its side in this spot, after laying an egg last week against Florida. So we like the visiting team here at the more manageable spread.

Free College Football Pick: Bulldogs -10.5 at Pinnacle