Bet Fresno State +17.5 vs. Boise State for College Football Picks

David Lawrence

Friday, October 17, 2014 7:29 PM GMT

Friday, Oct. 17, 2014 7:29 PM GMT

The Boise State Broncos didn’t win the Mountain Division of the Mountain West Conference last season. They’ll try to win the division this time and they need to beat Fresno State to do it. They’re a big favorite on the college football odds this Friday night.

The Fresno State Bulldogs Can Win Because…
They are going up against a team that is not as consistent passing the football as it used to be. Boise State has not yet found an elite quarterback in the years since Kellen Moore, the program’s all-time-best quarterback, graduated. Moore was the player who led the Broncos to double-digit-win seasons in each of his four years under center in Boise. From 2008 through 2011, Boise State lost only three times, going 50-3 in those seasons. The Broncos completed an undefeated regular season twice, losing the 2008 Poinsettia Bowl to TCU after going 12-0 during the regular season. Moore helped the Broncos win on days when the defense was shaky or the running game just wasn’t there. He was such a dependable player, and Boise State still hasn’t recovered from his departure. In the season after Moore left, Joe Southwick did an okay job, but just a little more consistency from him could have made Boise State better. The program began to decline, and in 2013, the fall became much more noticeable as Southwick got injured and gave way to Grant Hedrick, who was just not ready. Boise State went from losing twice in 2012 to five times in 2013. The program didn’t even win its own division in the Mountain West Conference after getting used to winning conference titles through 2010. This year, Hedrick had a year of experience to lean on, but he’s found it hard to bring a strong performance to the field every week. Boise State’s offense was lousy against Air Force, trailing 28-0 in the second half before scoring two late and meaningless touchdowns. Fresno State can beat this team.

 

The Boise State Broncos Can Win Because…
They are lucky in that Fresno State just doesn’t have the same skills of past teams from Fresno. The Bulldogs are just not that good this season. They were great last season, and they won the Mountain West Conference championship with the explosive play of wide receiver Davante Adams, a fast and talented wide receiver who was able to get open on both short routes (mostly slants) and long routes whenever quarterback Derek Carr found him open. Carr and Adams were great as a pass-and-catch combination, but the bigger story was that Carr simply made the right read on almost every play. If Adams was taken away, something which didn’t happen often but did occur once in a while, Carr was able to find another receiver. He was so able to see the whole field and release the ball early that Fresno State’s passing game became the toughest offense to stop in the Mountain West. The Bulldogs’ offense was ahead of the Mountain West the whole season. Only a defensive breakdown against San Jose State on the day after Thanksgiving prevented the Bulldogs from playing in a Bowl Championship Series game. Boise State should be able to shut down this year’s Fresno State offense, which couldn’t even outscore UNLV last Friday.

 

Outlook
When making your college football picks keep in mind that if Boise State plays a very sharp game, it will blow out Fresno State, but that’s part of the Broncos this year: They don’t play perfect or near-perfect games very often, if at all. Fresno State won’t win, but it will cover the college football odds pointspread.

College Football Pick: Fresno State +17.5 at 5Dimes

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