Clemson has one of the top defenses in the country, which makes them a worthwhile NCAA football pick against offensive-challenged Wake Forest Thursday night.
Keeping It Together
Clemson has won five games in a row, including a 16-6 victory over the Syracuse Orange as 16.5-point home favorites Oct. 25, while going UNDER the betting total four times in that period of time.
The Tigers are expected to have top signal-caller Deshaun Watson back next week, which is important to consider when looking over the Week 11 College Football odds, as backup Cole Stoudt is averaging just 5.81 yards per attempt.
Over the last two-plus seasons, the program is 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS in November, with no clear edge in terms of the total (4-4 Over/Under).
Wake Forest is last in the Atlantic Coast Conference in total offense at 213.5 yards per game, which can’t be ignored when making your College Football pick, while it looks to snap a 10-game losing streak versus ranked opponents.
All of the Demon Deacons offensive points have come from players who either redshirted in 2013 or were not with the program—failing to hit the 30-point mark eight games into a season for the first time since 2000.
Since 2012, the squad is 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS as underdogs of 21.5 to 31 points.
The Tigers produced a perfect 4-0 SU record last month, with the stop unit allowing an average of just 9.0 points and 213 yards—ranking first nationally in each of those categories.
Clemson has done a tremendous job of ending opponents’ drives in 2014, as it leads all teams in allowing a conversion rate of just 23 percent on third down.
Points Off Turnovers
The Demon Deacons are going to have a difficult time covering this number, as they enter with a minus-four turnover margin, which has played a part in getting outscored by a 69-33 margin in that category.
Wake Forest is allowing 24.6 points per game, but if the turnover-touchdowns were eliminated—the defense would be giving up only 19.4.
I’m going to recommend that readers back the Tigers as one of their midweek football picks, as they’ve gone 5-2-1 ATS as road favorites the last two-plus seasons.
Free College Football Pick: Clemson Tigers -22 at BetOnline