Bet Bulldogs +10 in Mississippi State vs. LSU

Jeff Grant

Thursday, September 18, 2014 3:20 PM GMT

Thursday, Sep. 18, 2014 3:20 PM GMT

The LSU Tigers have dominated opponents under the lights in Baton Rouge during the Les Miles era, but they may be overvalued by the college football odds when they face the Mississippi State Bulldogs in Week 4.

A Major Test
Mississippi State is 3-0 for the second time in the Dan Mullen era, which can’t be ignored when making your Week 4 college football picks, especially since the squad has racked up over 500 yards of total offense in each of its last four games dating back to last season.

The Bulldogs’ 131 points scored through the first three games of the season are their most since 1944, with quarterback Dak Prescott being responsible for 72 of them—ranking second nationally in that statistical category.

Over the last two-plus seasons, the program is 1-10 SU and 4-7 ATS as underdogs, with the UNDER going 7-4 in that situation.

 

Dominating efforts
LSU has posted back-to-back shutouts for the first time since 1985, which is important to consider when looking over the college football odds, as it has held opponents without points for 31 consecutive possessions.

The Tigers lead the Southeastern Conference in allowing just 205.7 yards per game—surrendering just three touchdowns through their first three games of the season.

Sports bettors will find that the team is a dominating 43-2 in Saturday night home games under Miles, while it has won 24 straight September games in Tiger Stadium.

 

Forcing the Issue
The Bulldogs are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS against the Tigers under Mullen, but their certainly capable of staying within this double-digit spread, as they’ve forced 22 turnovers in their last eight games dating back to last year.

Mississippi State’s 29 total tackles for loss paces the SEC and is the highest such figure among Power 5 Conference teams.  Keep a close eye on junior linebacker Benardrick McKinney, who has made a team-high 20 tackles.

 

Managing the Game
Tigers signal-caller Anthony Jennings has won all four of his games as a starter, while he’s completed 27-of-52 passes for 566 yards and five touchdowns with an interception in 2014.

LSU’s offense is certainly capable of becoming a major force nationally, but it’s important to point out that true freshmen have accounted for seven of the squad’s 15 touchdowns so far.

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Prediction
I’m going to recommend that readers back the Bulldogs as another one of my free picks this week, as the Tigers are a disappointing 11-24 ATS at home versus conference opponents under Miles.

This is without a doubt Mississippi State’s best shot of winning a game in this series in quite some time, as it returned eight starters on both sides of the football, with Prescott leading the charge.

Free MLB Pick:  Mississippi State Bulldogs +10 at Bovada

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