Bet on Away Team in Navy vs. Air Force NCAAF Picks

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, October 2, 2014 1:25 PM GMT

Join our handicapper as he examines the College Football betting odds for Navy vs. Air Force. Find out where he believes the best betting value lies for our Week 6 NCAAF picks.

My Perception/Reality play on Florida St. last week, a 3 point ATS loser, drops the record on these contrary selections to 3-2 ATS (60%) this year. Nonetheless, the Best Bet record in the Pointspread Prognosis CFB Newsletter remains 11-4 ATS for the season and a lofty 38-18 ATS L2Y. Today, we go to the front range of Colorado for the first of three matchups which will decide the Commander in Chief Trophy. 

 

There has been a major knee-jerk reaction by the linemaker and betting public in response to the series history between these teams and their recent results. This bureau will take a longer term perspective combining line value with the situation and history of our own for this week’s winner.

Compare Our Handicappers NCAAF Picks for Navy vs. Air Force!

Under 8th year HC Calhoun, Air Force has been on a decline in recent seasons. Since 2010, their victory total has dropped from 9 to 7 to 6 to 2. In the previous two years, the Fly Boys went just 6-17 ATS. Though the running game has been consistent, the defensive demise has been directly responsible for the dip in fortunes. In the previous 4 seasons, the defense has had a straight-line dip from allowing 21 PPG and 350 YPG to last year allowing 40 PPG and 490 YPG. The improved start this season is masked by wins against Nicholls St. and Georgia St., two of the worst programs on the planet. Less you believe that the 28-14 Air Force victory last week was a buy sign, consider these facts. In that game, Boise outgained Air Force 467-335. But 7 TOs by the Broncos sealed their fate. Air Force still has room for much improvement on the defensive side of the ball. But, the false hope of that victory has led the linemaker and public to an over-adjustment in this line which would have seen Navy be favored by double digits in this contest opening week of the season. I am well aware of the underdog significance in this series which has seen the pup get the Alpo 24 out of 30 recent meetings. 

 

The value in this play is also based on the recent performance by Navy. The Middies are off consecutive losses as home favorite against underrated entities, W. Kentucky and Rutgers. But, Navy has always been a far superior road to home team. This dichotomy was characterized in their two road victories at respected Texas St. (35-21) and Temple (31-24). It is noted that each of those wins came in the role of road chalk. Led by QB Reynolds, the Navy option attack is in high gear, averaging 358/6.4 overland. Unlike Air Force, this is a defense that has consistently improved in recent seasons, correlating with an improved win pattern that has seen the Middies go from 5 to 8 to 9 victories, has been a defense that has allowed 29 to 26 to 24 points.

 

Results from the last two weeks give us great line value in this contest. More important than the underdog history of the game is the fact that Navy is 9-2 SU, 10-1 ATS in a series they have recently dominated. That includes wins of 28-10 last year and 28-21 two years ago. 

 

Recent events have provided great line value for Navy in this contest. Despite their dominance of this series, Navy will be hungry to rebound following consecutive losses, while the Air Force confidence is misleading based on the reality of last week’s victory vs. Boise. Stay with the long-term trends which see these teams headed dichotomous directions. Back Navy over Air Force for College Football picks.

College Football Pick: Navy -4 at 5Dimes

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