Bet Arkansas' Moneyline Over Ole Miss for College Football

Darin Zank

Wednesday, November 19, 2014 3:12 PM GMT

Wednesday, Nov. 19, 2014 3:12 PM GMT

Arkansas just snapped a 17-game SEC losing streak with a win/cover over LSU, and while the Hogs are just 1-5 SU in SEC play, they're 4-2 ATS against conference foes. Can Arkansas make it two wins in a row when it hosts 8-2 Ole Miss Saturday afternoon?

 

Rebs-Hogs Betting Odds
Most college football odds opened Ole Miss at either -2.5 or -3, with a total of 45.5. As of Wednesday morning the best line we could find on the Rebs was the -3 offered at Bookmaker, while the Hogs could be found at +3.5 at Heritage.

Those who believe Arkansas won't even need the points could get a price of +155 on the moneyline at BetOnline.

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Rebs-Hogs: The Lowdown
Arkansas went off this season with a wins OVER/UNDER of 4.5. At 5-5 SU, 8-2 ATS and 1-5 in the SEC the Hogs have already played OVER their total, and need one win in their last two games, against the Rebs and Missouri, to become bowl-eligible.

The Razorbacks started 3-1 this season, the loss coming at Auburn. Arkansas then lost three in a row, including tough games against Texas A&M and Alabama, then stepped out of conference to beat UAB 45-17. The Hogs then lost at then-No. 1 Mississippi State 17-10 but covered as 10-point dogs. And last week Arkansas finally got Coach Bielema his first SEC victory, a 17-0 blanking of LSU.

The Hogs only gained 264 total yards last week, 95 yards on the ground, but held the Tigers to just 123 total yards, 36 on the ground.

Meanwhile, Ole Miss went off this season with a wins OVER/UNDER of 7.5. At 8-2 SU, 6-3-1 ATS and 4-2 in SEC play the Rebs are already OVER their total, and they still have a chance to win the SEC West.

Ole Miss started this season 7-0, with wins over Boise State, Alabama and Texas A&M. But the Rebs then lost a tough game at LSU 10-7, giving up the winning score with five minutes to go in the game. Ole Miss then lost at home to Auburn 35-31, giving up a 10-point third-quarter lead.

Last time out the Rebs stepped out of SEC play to beat Presbyterian 48-0; they then had last week off.

So in four games against common foes this season – Auburn, Texas A&M, Alabama and LSU – Ole Miss is 2-2 both SU and ATS, while Arkansas is 1-3 SU but 3-1 ATS.

 

Rebs-Hogs Recent History
Ole Miss has beaten Arkansas the last two seasons by scores of 30-27 and 34-24, bringing the Rebs to within 31-28 in the all-time series.

Last year in Oxford Ole Miss pulled away in the second half for the 10-point victory, but Arkansas hung on for the cover as a 17-point dog. The Rebs led 20-10 at the half and 34-17 in the fourth quarter, but the Hogs scored with five minutes to go to secure the cash. Ole Miss outgained Arkansas 534-389, but the Razorbacks outrushed the Rebs 196-106.

 

Rebs-Hogs Betting Trends
Ole Miss is 2-7 on the totals this season, as Rebs games have averaged 45 points.

Arkansas is 6-4 on the totals, as Hogs games have averaged 56 points.

Ole Miss is 23-13 SU and 23-12-1 ATS in two-plus seasons under Coach Freeze.

 

Rebs-Hogs Free Pick
This is a tough spot, because while we're leaning toward Arkansas, we fear the Hogs might suffer a letdown, after their streak-stopping victory last week. But good running games and good defenses can help teams get through emotional swings. So we'll stick with Arkansas for our college football picks, to win this game outright.

Free College Football Pick: Hogs on the moneyline at 5Dimes

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