Bet Alabama to Bounce Back vs. Arkansas in Week 7

Jeff Grant

Monday, October 6, 2014 1:27 PM GMT

Before making your Week 7 NCAA football pick against the the Alabama Crimson Tide because of their loss to Ole Miss, understand that they are more attractive than the Arkansas Razorbacks.

Down and Out?
Alabama fell to No. 7 in the latest AP Top 25 poll after suffering a 23-17 setback to the Mississippi Rebels as 5.5-point road favorites last Saturday, but it’s important to point out that the team won the statistical battle by 73 yards in that affair.

The Crimson Tide are still very much alive in trying to secure one of the four spots in the upcoming college football playoff, especially since their final two Southeastern Conference games are at home against the Mississippi State Bulldogs and Auburn Tigers.

Sports bettors still need to be aware that the program is a disappointing 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games following a SU loss.

 

Step Up In Class
Arkansas has dropped its first 10 SEC games under second-year head coach Bret Bielema, which is important to consider when looking over the College Football odds page, but it does benefit from coming off its first bye week of the season ahead of this matchup.

The Razorbacks will look to snap a 0-7 SU and 2-5 ATS run in this series, but that’s asking a lot due to the fact that they haven’t scored in their last nine quarters of play against the Crimson Tide.

Over the last two-plus seasons, the team is 8-9 SU and 6-11 ATS when playing in Fayetteville.

 

Stopping the Run
The Crimson Tide rank third nationally in allowing just 64.0 rushing yards per game—a very important statistic to handicap due to the Razorbacks’ offense being reliant on winning the time-of-possession battle with a punishing ground game.

During the Nick Saban era in Tuscaloosa, Alabama has allowed just nine players to rush for 100-plus yards in a game, while it has held Arkansas to 92 or fewer yards on the ground overall in five of the last six meetings.

 

Allen Needs to Play Big
The Razorbacks will certainly try to run between the tackles Saturday, but they’ll need quarterback Brandon Allen to make plays in the passing game, as the junior enters this affair with a 153.4 passer rating.

Dating back to last season, Allen has completed 50 percent or more of his passes in eight consecutive games, while he’s being protected by an offense line that averages 328.4 pounds and allowed just one sack through five games.

 

Prediction
I’m going to recommend that readers back the Crimson Tide as one of their Week 7 College Football picks, as they’ve won their last seven games against the Razorbacks by an average of 28 points.

Saban has already preached to his locker room that its goals for the season are still obtainable, while Arkansas simply isn’t ready to capture its first conference victory since 2012.

Free College Football Pick: Alabama Crimson Tide -9.5 at 5Dimes

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