Bet Alabama -7.5 vs. Texas A&M: College Football Picks

Steve Merril -

Thursday, September 12, 2013 8:43 PM UTC

Thursday, Sep. 12, 2013 8:43 PM UTC

Free college football picks for the Week 2 matchup between the Alabama Crimson Tide and the Texas A&M Aggies. We examine the current betting lines, hoping to find a betting edge.

The biggest game on Saturday’s college football schedule will be played at 3:30 pm ET on CBS when #6 Texas A&M hosts #1 Alabama. Sportsbooks have Alabama listed as 7.5-point favorites on the College Football odds board with the total ranging from 61 to 62 depending on where you place your bet.

Take a look at my College Football Picks: Opening Odds Report for Week 3.

Alabama has had this game circled in red after losing 29-24 to Texas A&M as 13.5-point home favorites last season. That was the Crimson Tide’s only loss last season, and it was just their third home loss over the last five years. Alabama comes into this game off a bye week so they’ve had extra time to get ready for this revenge game in College Station.

The Crimson Tide beat Virginia Tech 35-10 in their season opener. While that looks like an impressive win on the scoreboard, Alabama’s offense actually struggled. They only had 11 first downs and 206 yards of total offense. Alabama only had 96 rushing yards while averaging just 2.5 yards per rush. Quarterback A.J. McCarron was terrible as he completed just 43.5% (10-23) of his passes for 110 yards with 1 TD pass and 1 INT.

Find out how we recommend betting the total in this matchup. 

Alabama scored on a 72-yard punt return, a 38-yard interception return, and a 94-yard kickoff return. So 21 of their 35 points came on defense and special teams.

However, don’t be quick to downgrade Alabama’s offensive performance against Virginia Tech’s defense. The Hokies have one of the best defenses in the country so we’re willing to give Alabama’s offense a pass for that poor performance.

Alabama’s defense was stout against Virginia Tech. The Crimson Tide held the Hokies to only 10 points on 212 yards of total offense with 77 of those yards coming on one play. The Crimson Tide’s defense got shredded last year by A&M, and they’ll be out to make amends for that ugly display of football.

Bettors should know that HC Nick Saban is 19-3 SU and 14-7-1 ATS as a conference road favorite as coach of Alabama. Saban’s teams won those games by an average of 18 points per game.

Texas A&M has rolled in their first two games despite the controversy surrounding quarterback Johnny Manziel. He was suspended for the first half of their season opener against Rice for allegations of accepting money to sign autographs. The Aggies have won their two games by a combined score of 117-59. But wins over inferior teams Rice and Sam Houston State mean absolutely nothing. Texas A&M is taking the biggest step-up in class versus Alabama in this game. 

When A&M beat Alabama last season, the Aggies already had nine games under their belt. They were battled tested in games against Florida, Mississippi, and LSU. Those games prepared them for Alabama. The Aggies don’t have that luxury this season, and facing a pair of cupcakes in no way prepares them for what they’ll face in the Crimson Tide. 

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Bettors should know that Texas A&M head coach Kevin Sumlin is just 1-3 SU and ATS as a conference home underdog, including a 0-2 ATS record in College Station. 

Alabama has won 13 consecutive games away from home and 12 of those 13 wins have come by 10 points or more. So while the pointspread on this game looks like an inviting option for your college football picks, I will recommend to take 7.5 points with the talented Aggies as a home underdog, we recommend laying the points with the motivated and revenge-minded road favorite in this game on Saturday afternoon.

College Football Pick: Alabama -7.5
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