Before you even consider placing your Week 11 College Football pick, read this insightful article from an experienced handicapper who decides to focus his attention on Tuesday's match between Bowling Green & Akron.
This is a battle of two teams headed opposite directions, though the YTD record and conference standings have yet to reflect that. The linemaker is certainly aware. It is the reason why Akron is a 7 point favorite in a matchup where they were 14 point dog last season, and would have been an underdog at the start of this year. It is for that loss of value that this is not a Top of the Ticket Play.
The 5 year reign of previous Bowling Green HC Dave Clawsen (now HC Wake Forest) was characterized by dramatic improvement by Bowling Green, as those who placed their optimistic College Football picks on them will recall. From 2010 to 2013, the Falcons went from 2 to 5 to 8 to 10 wins. There were Bowl appearances in each of the previous 2 seasons. Along with the record came virtual straight-line improvement in both the offensive and defensive numbers. In the 2 win season of 2010, Bowling Green was outscored by an average of 34-21 and outgained by an average of 429-295. Last year, in the 10-4 SU, 9-4 ATS season, Bowling Green outscored the opposition 35-16, while outgaining them 459-321. It resulted in the first MAC Championship and a Bowl bid vs. Pittsburgh.
Enter new head coach Babers.
The Falcons have totally changed their profile under his guidance. Babers was the architect of a high-scoring Baylor attack unit, which he translated to his job as HC at E. Illinois. There, his teams averaged 48 PPG and 590 YPG. But no team in the land has a defense that has taken a bigger hit than the Falcons. This year’s unit is a DEFENSIVE DUD, allowing 37 PPG, 542 YPG and 6.3 YP play. Though the offense is nearly as prolific at 34 PPG, the loss of veteran pilot, QB Johnson, led to Bowling Green scoring just 14 points in a 12 point loss to W. Michigan in their last contest on October 18th. Despite that defeat, BG is still 3-1 SU in the league, courtesy of contests against lowly UMass, Buffalo and Ohio U. Tonight, the challenge is much greater against an improving and hungry Akron team.
The Zips are in their 3rd year under HC Bowden. He has guided them from seasons of 1-11 to 5-7 to 4-4 TY. Major improvement has come on the defensive side of the ball, where the Zips have gone from allowing 36 PPG to 29 PPG to just 20 PPG in the last 3 seasons. This will be a hungry team, after they suffered road defeats at Ohio U and Ball St. in their previous 2 outings. With the return of QB Pohl to the lineup, however, the Zips’ offense should be more prolific. With that unit able to match the explosiveness of BG (without QB Johnson) and having by far the better defense, it is time for Akron to end the 5-game series dominance of Bowling Green, and the College Football odds seem to agree .
Free College Football Pick: Play Akron at BetOnline