Best Ways to Bet on Michigan State: Regression Coming for Spartans?

Plenty of advanced stats suggest that Michigan State was fortunate to win 11 games last season. Can bettors capitalize on the notion that Sparty is primed for regression in 2022?

Last season saw Michigan State race out to an 8-0 start, culminating with a win over then-unbeaten rival, Michigan. Although the Spartans went on to lose two of its final four regular season games, the season-long body of work earned them a spot in the Peach Bowl. There, MSU defeated Pittsburgh to secure the program’s first 11-win season since 2015.

For all of the success that Michigan State achieved in Mel Tucker’s second year at the helm, it will be extremely difficult to replicate in 2022. Scheduling won’t do the Spartans any favors as the Big Ten East Division project to be strong once again this season. 

Michigan State does have 14 returning starters in total. Unfortunately, superstar running back Kenneth Walker isn’t one of them. While nine of those starters reside on the defense, the Spartans will be hard-pressed to get away with the same “bend but don’t break” style that they played a season ago.

Below, we look at the best ways to bet on the Michigan State Spartans in 2022 (odds via BetMGM and DraftKings Sportsbook).

Best Bets for Michigan State in 2022

2022 Predictions for Michigan State

Under 7.5 regular season wins (+115)

The Spartans were a great story a year ago, but regression appears to be imminent in 2022.

Let’s start with the major loss of Heisman Trophy finalist, Kenneth Walker. In actuality, replacing Walker at running back may not be as bad of a headache as some expect. The Spartans added a pair of transfers at the position, including Jarek Broussard Sr. from Colorado. 

Where the outlook for the ground game truly gets dicey is up front. Only two starters return from the offensive line that spearheaded Walker’s phenomenal 2021 season. MSU did add a transfer along the line which helps from an experience standpoint. Nonetheless, it will be quite difficult to replicate last year’s success.

Also, virtually every advanced metric in the book points towards regression. Michigan State was outgained by more than 60 yards per game in Big Ten play. They also pulled out four Net Close Wins and had a trio of Net Upsets. 

Can lightning strike for a second straight year in East Lansing? Probably not. Combine the difficulty of Sparty’s Big Ten Conference schedule with a nonconference road trip to Washington, and the plus-money price on MSU to go under 7.5 wins is quite enticing.

Under 4.5 Conference Wins (+165)

A big reason for looking to fade Michigan State in Big Ten Conference play is how they looked when they weren’t picking up season-defining wins a year ago.

The Spartans were extremely fortunate to get past Nebraska at home in overtime. They trailed lowly Indiana at the half, ultimately winning the game by five. Then, there was the letdown against Purdue one week after slipping past Michigan. Finally, a 56-7 loss at Ohio State left MSU looking much more like the team that started the season unranked as opposed to the one that eventually reached a top-5 status in the AP Poll.

Looking at Sparty’s 2022 Big Ten schedule, three games immediately jump out as likely defeats. Home field won’t be enough to save MSU against Ohio State, while road trips to Michigan and Penn State can also be penciled in as losses. For Michigan State to surpass its conference win total of 4.5, a win over one of Wisconsin or Minnesota will be needed. 

On the bright side, both of those division crossover games take place in East Lansing. However, the Spartans also must not sleep on an October 1st road trip within the division to Maryland. With Taulia Tagovailoa back to lead an explosive offense, the Terps could very well challenge MSU for fourth place in the Big Ten East this season.

Fewer Regular Season Wins than Baylor (-120)

In the preseason AP Poll, Michigan State is only five spots behind 10th-ranked Baylor. We've broken down the tough schedule that Michigan State will face this season, but how does Baylor’s schedule compare? 

Many analysts are viewing the Big 12 as a wide-open conference this season. However, Baylor is largely considered to be one of the four or five teams with a legitimate shot at winning the conference title. 

Five wins can be penciled in for the Bears over the likes of Albany, Texas State, West Virginia, Kansas, and Texas Tech. Baylor will have two more terrific opportunities at home against TCU and Kansas State. The real kicker is that, from a power rating standpoint, Dave Aranda’s squad has a decent chance in road games at BYU, Iowa State, Oklahoma, and Texas as well. 

While Michigan State’s ceiling in 2022 is likely nine wins, the Bears have a legitimate chance to crack double-digits in the win column. A -120 ticket on Baylor to claim the upper hand in this head-to-head win total prop should result in no worse than a push.

Where to Bet on Michigan State Futures

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel Sportsbook
Caesars Sportsbook
DraftKings Sportsbook
PointsBet
BetMGM

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Ways to bet on Michigan State picks made 8/17/2022 at 4:43 p.m. ET.