Best Trends Indicators for Your Week 7 College Football Picks

Joe Gavazzi

Friday, October 9, 2015 9:36 PM UTC

Friday, Oct. 9, 2015 9:36 PM UTC

Focusing your statistical handicapping on the point of attack is an outstanding way to record profitable college football picks that run into seasons.

I spent a part of the month of August reviewing statistical indicators for the upcoming 2015 CFB season. I found that, despite the rise in scoring and increase in passing, it was still the CFB teams who had a balanced offense or dominated the line of scrimmage that produced the biggest profit, week after week and year after year, in the CFB season.

The first area that we look at is a group of teams that I call the 200 club. I have tracked these teams since the beginning of the millennium with great success. These have shown a consistent record of 75% ATS winners in the previous 15 years. More specifically, in the last 4 years, the record has been an even better 605-180 ATS (77%). So just who are these balanced teams that get us the money? The theory is quite simple. “In any given CFB game, play a team who runs and passes for 200 or more yards, if their opponent does not.” So how is this theory doing in CFB after 5 weeks of the season?

56-18 ATS (75.7%) … play any team who runs and passes for 200 or more yards in a given CFB game, if their opponent does not.

The next area to isolate is the heart of what we call our steamroller plays. In this handicapping situation, we look to isolate any team who will double rush their opponent. The results for the millennium show a similar 75% win situation to the 200 club above. More specifically, in the previous 4 years, the record is 921-311 ATS (74.8%) winners. Now, let’s take a look at how that situation has done in the 2015 CFB season after 5 weeks of action.

75-32 ATS (70.1%) … play any CFB team who double rushes their opponent in a given game.

The record of each of these rushing statistics should begin to increase, now that the big lines of the “September preseason” are out of the way. As an example of this, consider that last week, in what was the first week of conference play for many teams, the 200 club went 9-2 ATS while the double rushers were a resounding 21-5 ATS.

Of course just like in the NFL, “ALL bets are off,” if our opponent has a (+3) football odds or more net TO differential! Just witness our top of the ticket loser with N. Illinois last week, who double rushed C. Michigan 211-93, but lost 29-19 because of a (+3 net TO margin by the Chips. The recent 4 year record of any CFB team with a (+3) or more net TO margin in a given game is 338-54 ATS (86.2%). Now, let’s take a look at the record of 5 weeks of CFB play in 2015.

47-11 ATS (81%) … play any CFB team who has a (+3) or more net TO margin in a game.

By the way, much like the NFL, CFB teams with exactly a (+2) net TO margin are solid money winners: you would have a 41-16 ATS record (71.9%), if you were to isolate any CFB game where one team had an exactly (+2) net TO margin. 

Focusing your statistical handicapping on the point of attack is an outstanding way to record profitable college football picks that run into seasons. Stick to your guns with this method of handicapping and do not be deterred, if a series of your losses are due to a negative TO differential.

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