Best Pick on Kessler +900 to Win Heisman Trophy Heading Into Week 3

Matthew Jordan

Wednesday, September 16, 2015 10:15 PM GMT

Well, then, perhaps there was no reason to worry about TCU and star quarterback Trevone Boykin. He is back as your Bovada Heisman favorite at +850 college football odds following a big Week 2 for him and the Horned Frogs. What did we learn from Week 2?

Boykin Bounces Back
Boykin looked just so-so as did that high-powered TCU defense in Week 1 as the Frogs managed only 23 points at a decent but not great Minnesota team of the Big Ten. Boykin threw for 246 with a TD and pick and rushed for 92 yards and a score. But it wasn't up to par of what he did in 2014. Boykin dropped into the co-second favorite spot to win the Heisman at Bovada.

You certainly have to consider the competition this past Saturday, but TCU was firing on all cylinders against little Stephen F. Austin as the Frogs won 70-7. Boykin completed 18 of 27 for 285 yards, four TDs and a pick. His rating was 196.8 compared to 114.2 vs. the Gophers. Boykin only ran three times for six yards against SFA.

Boykin should have another monster game this week against SMU -- another laughable non-conference opponent for TCU. Just for a point of comparison, the Mustangs gave up 56 points in a Week 1 35-point loss to then-No. 4 Baylor.

 

Here Comes Cody!
Ohio State quarterback Cardale Jones, running back teammate Ezekiel Elliott and the big riser, Southern Cal quarterback Cody Kessler, are all at +900 on the Heisman futures odds board. The Buckeyes were a tad flat in Week 2, beating Hawaii 38-0. Jones was 12-for-18 for 111 yards and no scores while rushing for only 5 yards. Elliott carried 27 times for 101 yards and three scores. OSU should put up at least 50 this week against visiting Northern Illinois of the Mid-American Conference.

Kessler, arguably the top returning pure passer in the nation, has been great. Through two easy USC wins against Arkansas State and Idaho (what is with these joke schedules!?), Kessler has a rating of 215.3, second only to Ole Miss' Chad Kelly. Kessler has completed 78.9 percent of his passes (No. 5 nationally) for 650 yards and seven touchdowns with no picks. The competition takes a big leap this week as the Trojans host Stanford, always one of the best defenses in the nation. USC won 13-10 at Stanford early last year despite Kessler throwing for only 135 yards (season low) and no touchdowns.

Another QB who took a big jump last week was Michigan State's Connor Cook. He went from +2500 to +1200 college football odds following the Spartans' huge Top-10 home win over Oregon. Cook was 20-for-32 for 192 yards and two scores. He's really never going to put up huge numbers in that MSU offensive scheme. It's now how Sparty plays.

 

SEC Trio
Perhaps some book will offer a prop soon on an SEC running back winning the Heisman against the field. Only one tailback this century, Alabama's Mark Ingram, has won the Heisman (in 2009). I'm not sure we will see a running back do so again -- Wisconsin's Melvin Gordon had perhaps the second-greatest season ever for a running back in 2014 and he couldn't win, finishing second to Oregon's Marcus Mariota.

Three SEC backs are currently among the favorites in Georgia's Nick Chubb (+1000), LSU's Leonard Fournetts (+1200) and  Alabama's Derrick Henry (+1200).

Chubb followed a 120-yard, two-TD effort in Week 1 with 189 yards on 19 carries in a win over Vanderbilt this past weekend. He was kept out of the end zone. Chubb and the Dawgs face visiting South Carolina on Saturday evening.

Fournette could be hurt by the fact that LSU will play one fewer regular season game than everyone else after the Tigers' opener was canceled due to weather. In his season debut last week, Fournette dominated a good  Mississippi State defense, rushing 28 times for 159 yards and all three LSU touchdowns in the 21-14 win. His value could get a big boost this week with huge game and win over ranked Auburn.

Henry racked up 147 yards and three scores in Week 1 against Wisconsin and three more TDs last Saturday in a win over Middle Tennessee, although he had "only" 96 yards on 18 carries. Henry faces one of the best defenses in the land in No. 15 Ole Miss on Saturday night.

College Football Pick: Kessler is my guy for my college football picks right now. USC might not lose a game in the regular season.