Behind the Machine: Week 4 College Football Numbers Direct From Ed Feng's Database

Georgia State players walking in field

SBR Staff

Thursday, September 21, 2017 5:51 PM UTC

Thursday, Sep. 21, 2017 5:51 PM UTC

Ed Feng shares his personal notes and thoughts for this week's Man vs. Machine.

343 Georgia State (PK) at Charlotte

Neither of these teams have looked good this season, as both teams have gotten blown out at Power 5 opponent and lost to an FCS opponent.

However, Georgia State had the 40th ranked defense by my adjusted yards per play last season, and they bring back almost everyone back.  This unit tips this game in favor of Georgia State.

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334 Maryland -3.5 vs UCF

Maryland racked up 8.3 yards per play against a good Texas defense in a big win.  QB Tyrell Pigrome got hurt and is out for the season, but Karim Hill looked fine against Towson.

Due to weather, we've only seen UCF in one game, a lopsided win over Florida International.  I tend to trust my preseason rank of 74th for the Golden Knights.

While Maryland has question marks at QB and the secondary, their upward trajectory this season makes them the favorite to cover against UCF.

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310 Appalachian State +4.5 vs Wake Forest

Appalachian State struggled in a 7 point win at Texas State last week, but let's not make too much of one game.  My numbers put this team near FBS average.

Wake Forest was above FBS average for the first time in a long time in 2016 by my numbers, which take margin of victory in games and adjusts for strength of schedule.  However, they bring back the same QB John Wolford on a bad offense last year, and they lost just enough on defense to make you think they won't surge up too far past FBS average.

Wake is the better team, but the home field for App State makes this a close game.

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