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Baylor vs. Oklahoma State Picks Week 14: Cowboys Will Cover in Big 12 Title Game

Baylor Oklahoma State Picks
Spencer Sanders has recorded 2,211 passing yards for Oklahoma State this season. Photo by Brian Bahr/Getty Images/AFP.

The No. 8 Baylor Bears and No. 7 Oklahoma State Cowboys are squaring off for the Big 12 title in an unexpected clash. Let’s break down this betting matchup in our Baylor-Oklahoma State picks.

The Big 12 championship wasn’t supposed to feature the Baylor Bears and Oklahoma State Cowboys based on preseason expectations. But the two programs have thoroughly impressed while combining for 21 wins and only three losses. This is a rematch of an October battle that the Cowboys won 24-14.

That game wasn’t decided until late, with the Pokes’ running game helping them to overcome three interceptions. Will this contest go the same way?

Here are my picks and predictions for the college football Week 14 matchup between the Bears and the Cowboys (odds via BetMGM, and pick confidence is based on a one-to-five star scale).

Baylor vs. Oklahoma State Game Info

Date/Time: December 4, 2021 at noon ET
TV: ABC
Location: AT&T Stadium, Dallas, TX

Baylor vs. Oklahoma State Odds Analysis

This line opened with the Cowboys getting a whopping 6.5 points, and it's since corrected to -4 or -5 across various books. These teams are close in talent and overall approach, but only three points separated the two squads entering the final 2:15 of the game in October.

The total has dropped three points from 49.5 to 46.5. That's a great line for oddsmakers, and it's surprising they offered such a high number initially.

Baylor vs. Oklahoma State Picks

Oklahoma State -5 (-110) ★★★★
Over 46.5 (-110) ★★★

SEE ALSO: Oregon vs. Utah State Picks

Baylor vs. Oklahoma State Predictions

Oklahoma State -5 (-110)

We have to throw some of the results out from the last meeting between these teams. There are often numerous new wrinkles from both sides that turn games upside down the second time teams face off during a season.

However, Baylor has been involved in a close game almost every week, and the school continues to win with a heavy lean on its run game and an opportunistic defense. The Bears' formula has been the same all season since they began playing stronger opponents.

But the problem for Baylor is that Oklahoma State has simply been better at the same strategy. The Cowboys' defense is more complete, a bigger star in Jaylen Warren powers their rushing offense, and the team is more proven overall. Those advantages should lead to Oklahoma State winning and covering.

Over 46.5 (-110)

The total has almost gone even over the last 10 meetings between these teams, with a 4-6 Over-Under mark. It's been fascinating to watch the totals drop from the mid-70s to the high 40s over the last few seasons for this matchup.

Neither team could produce any semblance of a respectable passing game during the previous clash. Rushing still powers both Baylor and Oklahoma State, but expecting the two quarterbacks to combine for 355 passing yards, one score, and three interceptions on 50 attempts is selling this game short. The contest won't be the same the second time around this season.

Baylor will likely finish with over 56 total plays, and Oklahoma State probably won't commit three turnovers. The boost in possessions will mean more points, resulting in the Over hitting despite four of the last six matchups going Under.

SEE ALSO: All picks and odds. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Baylor-Oklahoma State picks made 11/30/2021 at 12:24 p.m. ET